Where Will 94L Go?

That is for you to decide today. I already have my idea, but I would like to hear some of your opinions, and why. Here are the current model tracks:





If you can tell me who is right, you win a cookie! The divergence in the models is amazing, some seeing a weakness which pulls 94L to the north, some seeing a building high which holds 94L south and moves it westward. I wouldn't want to be the NHC right now trying to come up with a forecast when they designate this system a TD/TS later today. The system is looking very well structures right now, and I am not fully sure why it is not a TD. I understand the low level circulation has not completely closed, but it is very strong in all of the quadrants except the southwest. Strong, meaning Tropical Storm winds. I, personally, think they should call it a Tropical Depression right now, keep it as such until it closes off the low, and then bump it to a Tropical Storm, unless wind speeds in it warrant a Tropical Storm classification earlier (for instance, 60 mph winds). But, that's just my opinion. I think 94L will jump TD status (for the 5th time this year!) and become Gustav later today or tonight. Where it goes....you get to tell me. (I will update later today with what I am thinking.)





Fay



Quickly, thought I would post this image from the National Weather Service which Dr. Masters posted on his blog on Weather Underground. It shows how much rain Fay dumped on Florida...amazing!

Addition: Of course, just after I finish this, the Navy says we have TD7. So, I guess it will be called a TD before a TS. However, I don't think it will be long until we have TS Gustav. Because the NHC is going to put out a forecast soon, I thought I would let you know what I am thinking. I think the storm will continue its northwest movement for the next day or two, bringing it very close to mainland Cuba. The weakness created by Fay and the trough moving through the eastern US should allow TD7 to move towards the Keys. After this, it really is a flip-the-coin type of situation. A ridge builds over the gulf/southeast, which will reduce the steering and make it very difficult to pinpoint a track. I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC track go over Cuba towards the Keys. But with strong model divergence, I expect the NHC to say that it is a low confidence forecast, for both track and strength. Land interaction is going to be a major player.