TD7

TD7 has been officially designated. The track brings it over western Haiti and then along the northern coast of Cuba towards the Keys, close to what I was thinking. The forecast was, of course, low confidence for the NHC. I earlier posted the 6Z model runs with their high divergence...thinking they might get better by 12Z...nope, they got worse. We are going to need another 12-24 hours to really get a handle on where this storm will go in the long term. This may be one of those times when the NHC gets the track completely wrong, but don't blame them. This is an unusual situation.

However, they did go close to the CMC, GFDL, and HWRF which are all reasonably reliable track models. The GFS does not develop the system, so that model can not be used for track. The NOGAPS and European bring the storm north and then northeast, which seems the least likely at this point. However, the European was the first storm to notice that Fay would cross Florida into the Atlantic and then turn back towards the west....so we shouldn't ignore it. This storm will be a good learning experience.