Gustav Predictions

I still think my landfall location might be OK, primarily because the models often under estimate a building ridge, and thus it should push the storm slightly to the west at the end of the track near Louisiana. Creole, LA is still my pick.



The models are currently in great agreement with a central Louisiana landfall. A few, however, are still hinting at a shift to the west. Many of the GFS ensemble models are even further west, more in line with the UKMET, turning the storm completely around to the southwest near the Louisiana coast. The HWRF also thinks this will happen. So, the building ridge is definitely being picked up by the models, it is just a matter of how strong it will be. I am thinking it will be some sort of blend of the models, pushing it just a bit further west along the LA coast.

Note: Starting position is not even close to current position.

Of course, these are just my thoughts, not the official forecast. It is always best to follow your local law enforcement officials and NHC forecasts. Even if you are in an area that the storm doesn't look like it is heading for, but evacuations are ordered, it is best to evacuate. There is a reason the local officials call for evacuations: To save YOUR life!