TD 5 forms in the Gulf of Mexico

The tropical disturbance I spoke about earlier is now designated TD 5 by the Navy. I am sure the NHC will confirm this soon. Convection has continued to build over the low level circulation center, which is obviously now closed. Here is the current situation:

The low pressure center is shown by the red 'L' in the image and the yellow arrow indicates the current motion of TD5. The storm should continue this slight west-southwestern movement over the next few hours but then change to a more westerly path as the high pressure to the northwest, centered over the southern plains, steers TD5 towards the TX/LA coastline. The 'cone' of uncertainty, in my opinion, is shown by the green lines on the image. I expect the NHC to be close to this, if not slightly south. It is possible this storm traverses far enough west to get past Houston, but we shall see.

Again, TCHP is not high enough to favor rapid intensification, so this should be a slow developing system. Diurnal minimum is coming up in a few hours, so we could see a weakening of the convection over the next 5-6 hours, but I expect it to re-intensify tonight if the convection does decrease. If the convection continues to intensify over the low level circulation, then we might have a tropical storm by the end of the day or tomorrow morning.

Update:

NHC track forecast (brings the system to a 60 mph TS):