Gulf of Mexico Disturbance, 91L

The diurnal maximum for 91L has been very helpful in its development. Currently the system is located just off of the AL/MS border region in the Gulf of Mexico. The image below shows the current situation:

A few features are shown above. The tropical disturbance is obviously the large cloudy feature in the Gulf of Mexico, with red arrows showing the general circulation. The developing surface low looks to be just to the right of the top curved arrow. If the surface low is located in this region, it is still currently situated along the stationary boundary indicated by the yellow line on the right. This would imply that the system is not yet entirely tropical in nature. The yellow circle to the left is the remnants of a mesoscale convective system which traversed from the AL/TN/MS border region to the current location. The red bowing line with arrows it the MCS's outflow boundary. If the MCS had traversed slightly to the east, directly into the tropical system, the outflow could have lead to some enhanced uplift temporarily, but the dry air behind would have hampered the tropical system's long term growth. As it stands, the MCS missed and 91L looks to develop.

Conditions are marginal over the northern gulf, mainly because of some dry air pouring in from the north. However, all of the other variables looks to be in place. A low level circulation is already developing, shear looks to stay low over the northern gulf for the next 48-72 hours, and water temps are between 29-30C (supportive of tropical development). Another inhibiting factor, at least for rapid development, is low tropical cyclone heat content in the northern gulf waters. Likely this will restrict the system from reaching hurricane strength if it closes off a low level circulation today.

I could see a tropical depression forming out of this system, and with the tracking maps, models, and a current boundary located along the northern gulf; the system should track pretty much due west along the gulf coast towards the TX/LA border region. A named system is possible, but I wouldn't expect anything more than a minimal tropical storm. This system, no matter what happens, will be a flooding threat to southern LA/western TX. If it is given a name, it will be Edouard.

Two additional system are currently out in the mid-Atlantic, but neither look too impressive at this moment and are at least 4-5 days away from any land mass. Mid-August looks to be the start of a busy hurricane period with the GFS predicting three considerable tropical waves moving off the coast by from the 10th-16th. These waves, plus a conducive MJO, might lead to a busy late August.