GFS/European Surprise for Fay

Fay moved over Cuba during the night and is now moving into the Florida straights toward Key West. The storm is starting to get its act together now with visible satellite images showing good outflow in the northwest quadrant which it didn't have before. Shear is still low, around 10 knots, and should stay low for the near future. The radar our of Miami shows a vast field of rainfall already over the Everglades and Miami. A tornado watch for this region should go out soon.

Whatever Fay does at this point, it is definitely going to be a major rain maker. Currently radar estimates are already up to 3.25 inches from some isolated thunderstorms north of the main rain shield in south-central Florida. Just off the coast a large shield of rainfall has already produced 3-4 inches. Needless to say, as this shield continues to move onshore the rainfall amounts in southern Florida will increase substantially. Localized flooding looks likely with local rainfall amounts of up to 10-15 inches possible.

Beyond the rainfall however is the threat of wind and surge, which is much more reliant on where the center of circulation makes landfall. Currently the models are starting to pinpoint the Ft. Myers area, with the GFS ensembles going towards Tampa. The further south landfall would be a best case scenario as the storm would have less time to strengthen before landfall. Currently at 60 mph and 1002 mb, the storm has a good chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall even in the Ft. Myers region. If the storm makes it all the way to Tampa there is a greater chance of a strong Cat 1 or low end Cat 2 hurricane, so lets hope for the Ft. Myers area. The rain will be welcomed in this area as Lake Okeechobee is still 3 feet below normal. Currently the radar is supporting a landfall even further south of Ft. Myers as the center of circulation looks to be moving towards the Everglades. However, radar can be deceiving, so we will have to watch this over the next few hours to see what Fay is doing.

But the big question now is what will Fay do AFTER landfall. Most of the models want to bring Fay north into the southeastern United States and then up through Ohio into Canada. However, a few, including the GFS, European, and CMC are saying otherwise. The 12Z run yesterday of the European was the first (that I saw) which indicated Fay moving off the eastern shore of Florida, stalling out, backtracking into Florida into the Gulf and making landfall in the Florida Panhandle again! Thats three hits on Florida! I threw out that scenario at the time considering it seemed so far fetched, but now here is the GFS:

GFS at 30 hrs: Landfall near Ft. Myers

GFS at 108 hrs: Landfall near Palm Bay/Daytona Beach

GFS at 168 hrs: Landfall in the Panhandle of Florida

Red: GFS Track, Green: Consensus Tracks

The GFS and European (from last night) solutions are a worst case scenario for Florida as Fay looks to strengthen before landfall near Ft. Myers, off the eastern coast, and then again in the Gulf! Basically, Florida would not break apart Fay very much since the peninsula is so flat and Fay would only get stronger and stronger from one landfall to the next. This is NOT a good situation! Hopefully the ridge building off of the eastern seaboard will not be as strong as the models are starting to indicate and the storm will just go up through the US into Canada do minimal damage. But with the models hinting more and more at a cross through Florida and then a back up into Florida or the southeast coast, the entire southeastern seaboard and eastern Gulf coast needs to keep a close eye on Fay.