Denver Day 1

What a challenging forecast today! A wide spread in forecast models was present (mid 60s to lower 50s) and an interesting challenge when it came to the winds.

I checked out the MOS numbers yesterday to see how the NAM and GFS were performing, and it turns out the NAM most for Monday was forecasting a high in the lower 40s while the GFS was forecasting a high in the middle 50s. In the end the high was 51...in the middle. Today the GFS MOS was foreasting a low of 32 and a high of 55, while the NAM was going with a low in the lower 20s and a high of 51. Now, the spread wasn't quite as great on the MOS today as compared to yesterday, but the RAW GFS was still forecasting highs in the mid 60s! It is just amazing how the RAW numbers can be so different than the MOS at one single location.

In the end I went with a high of 55 and a low of 31. Why? Well it all came down to the model performance yesterday and the dewpoint this evening. The NAM did horrible yesterday for its forecast for today. Additionally, the 12Z NAM MOS was saying the high today should have been in the lower 30s....which it obviously wasn't. This immediately made me question the NAM MOS numbers. Additionally, the dewpoint was too low as compared to the current dewpoint temperature, which was leading to a much lower low. However, the GFS did much better than the NAM on its forecast for Monday and the GFS had a correct current dewpoint. Additionally, I did not expect the dewpoint to drop all that much today, but rather hold constant through the night. Thus, my final numbers. Hopefully it works out, but we shall see!

The winds are also a big challenge. The MOS numbers are fairly low around 9 knots while the RAW shows a late increase in wind speed just before dusk to 16 knots. Today around 5/6pm we saw this increase in wind speeds occur. I am not fully sure why...I will have to look into it. But the same thing looks to happen tomorrow, so I leaned towards the higher numbers and went 13 knots. The highest wind speed on Monday was 14 knots as of the 5 pm Climate Report. The high was 51 and the low was 27.

Week 2 After Thoughts and Week 3

Wow, well I was totally wrong about this week. Each system that tried to pull out towards the east lost its energy and dried up, leading to a completely dry week! It did rain Monday, but that wasn't a forecast day so it doesn't count. The GFS was way too wet in the long term last weekend!

And now we move on to Denver where the snow will be flying over the weekend. Luckily we won't have to deal with the snow this first week (at least). Temperatures should warm up nicely for the week. Denver will bring many different challenges compared to Charleston with the primary challenge likely being larger temperature swings. If we can get a strong front to move through the area we could possibly see highs in the 70s followed by lows in the 20s. Anything is possible in Denver. The next week doesn't look like a prime example of this, but the NWS does have highs on Thursday in the 60s with lows near 30. I look forward to the challenge and I hope I can score a little better than in Charleston. I really got punished on my forecast for Thursday. I know why I went 67 for my low and I understand why I ended up going 88 for my high...but I wish I had more time to look at the forecast. Work is a bit more important than a forecast contest, so I only really looked at it for about 10-15 minutes. I should have realized that strong southwesterly flow would lead to stronger heating and the MOS numbers would recognize that well. Oh well! On to Denver!

First week and thoughts about week 2

Charleston has been a rather dull city so far. The only real challenge was the low Tuesday night because it ended up being a midnight low and the winds....which didn't pan out as high as I had hoped on Friday. Temperatures seemed to follow the 850 mb temperature rules and were very close to MOS, with both the NAM and GFS being very accurate.

However, things should change for week two. Two or three systems have the potential to impact the area. The first will be remnants of Olaf streaming across the south and stalling in the southeast on Tuesday followed by a strong cold front on Wednesday. Thursday we might have a break between systems before a new cold front impacts the area late Friday. (Or at least that is what the models are currently indicating.) This will result in some high scoring opportunities! I wouldn't be surprised to see a winner for this city easily up near -8 or -9 if this much rainfall pans out. I will try and remember to blog on Monday about the possibilities for Tuesday. It will be interesting to see how the moisture from Olaf impacts the area. I see some opportunities to undercut guidance this week and possibility some 6Z lows. Should be a fun week!