In the words of a very good forecaster....

NOT GOOD!!!!


I remember when Katrina moved through Miami, diving to the west-southwest in a direction that was unexpected, I said to my friends and current wife: "This is the big one, the one that hits New Orleans." Of course, I wasn't 100% sure at the time and the models were still only starting to trend towards New Orleans, but I could just feel it. That same feeling is starting to get into my head again. Gustav has rapidly strengthened, it has a very symmetrical eye, great outflow, warm waters ahead of it, and nothing (besides a small passage over Cuba) stopping it. This storm has went from a hurricane that we should definitely be worried about, to a storm that can't be messed with.

Hurricane Hunters have found a minimal pressure of 945 mb and peak surface winds of 145 mph. Gustav is only 10 mph away from a Category 5 storm, and the NHC is now predicting it to become a Category 5 storm as it hits Cuba or just afterwards. The storm has consistently been tracking to the east side of the forecast and model tracks. This allowed it to mostly miss the Isle of Youth, not giving the island a real chance to weaken the system. Gustav is also flying right along, faster than most of the models had expected. This forward speed is only allowing it to burst through the ridge and beat the strengthening ridge that will later build as the storm approaches the coast. Things do not look good for the New Orleans area.

I am not going to definitively say this is Katrina 2, but it is starting to look like it. We need to wait an additional 6 hours, letting the storm interact with Cuba, to get an idea of where Gustav might be heading. Wherever Gustav does make landfall though, NO ONE should be within 10 miles of the coast. Be smart and get out of the way.