Gustav and Hanna.....

I don't like the look of either of these storms right now. The tracks are so ominous, so scary that the thought of what could occur over the next week is not good at all. We are likely to see two major hurricanes traverse through the Gulf over the next week! Think of Ivan and Katrina...and you are fairly close to what is going to occur. Move Ivan a bit west and Katrina a bit east...voila! Not good at all!

I am sorry about the lack of updates, but I had a surprise lengthy visit from a friend from out of town which kept me busy. I will be updating for the next five days continuously until my next 'weekend' Wed-Thurs when I will be going to North Dakota and away from a computer. This might be the best time to take a break considering Gustav should have already made landfall and Hanna will be busy drifting about in the Atlantic near the Bahamas. A quick 5-10 minute update on Gustav and Hanna. A more detailed analysis will come later today.

GUSTAV

Tropical Storm Gustav, which used to be Hurricane Gustav as it plowed into Haiti with 90 mph winds (much stronger than forecasted), is currently moving off of the western edge of Jamaica. Yes, Gustav went northwest into Haiti, took a sharp left turn and move down towards Jamaica and is now moving towards the west or westnorthwest. If we remember back to the models, this type of track was closest to the BAMS as the storm formed. The BAMS was even further south with the future track, but has since corrected and is now in line with all of the other models. Actually, model consistency is VERY good right now for a 5 day track. The models take Gustav westnorthwest through the Caribbean and then turn it northwest into the Gulf over the western edge of Cuba. They then go northwest to about the gulf coast of Louisiana, where they they move west towards Houston over land (take that turn a bit earlier...and Houston is under the gun). Watch out, the models have trended further west with time. This may end up being a Texas storm rather than Louisiana!

Basically the ridge that built over the Bahamas is guiding Gustav on this track. As this ridge breaks down (as Hanna develops into the Bahamas as well) the track of Gustav should move more and more closer to north. However, a second ridge will build in over the south-central US towards just north of the Bahamas in about 5 days. This will begin the push of Gustav back towards the west. The strength of Gustav will generally be determined by the strength of southwesterly shear in the Gulf, which doesn't look to be too much of a destructive factor at the moment. Add 5 knots and a major hurricane could be avoided, but right now I think its a good bet. High sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclone heat potential waters are ahead of the system until it reaches the central Gulf. My guess is we might see the storm go through explosive cyclogenesis, close to a Katrina or Rita development, as it moves over a heat eddy in the Gulf. Hopefully I am wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised. However, the storm should weaken as it moves towards the Gulf coast as TCHP waters decrease. This is NOT a storm to fool around with!

HANNA

Let me state this again....This is NOT a storm to fool around with. Hanna is currently just north-northeast of Puerto Rico, moving northwest. Models have it moving northwest for a day or two and then turning west towards Florida. The storm then looks to stall out as the steering currents subside with the ridge deteriorating in 3-5 days. A second ridge will build in, pushing Hanna southward towards Cuba and the Bahamas. As the ridge strengthens, it will then steer Hanna westward towards southern Florida, possibly right through the straight (European and GFS both go with this solution). Basically, this is a worst case scenario for the Gulf coast, as this track often results in a major hurricane. Right now the European drills this storm into New Orleans....but with this being over a week out, anything is possible. If Hanna takes this track, however, the entire Gulf coast is going to have to be on guard again just a few days after dealing with Gustav. One lucky scenario would be that Gustav uses up a lot of the TCHP waters in the Gulf, thus eliminating the strengthening potential of Hanna. Only problem...the models forecast Hanna to already be a major before it even reaches the Gulf. It is going to be a crazy week to two weeks in the western Tropical Atlantic. And this doesn't even count the eastern Atlantic where we could see another 1-2 storms develop before the Hanna makes landfall.

Note: A few models do pull Hanna out to sea after its stall near the Bahamas. However, I don't think that scenario is as likely because of the strengthening ridge which should push it back westward after the stall.