Fay's Future

Tropical Storm Fay has been a pesky little storm already. Forming near Puerto Rico a few days ago, the storm had difficulty forming a closed low level center even though it was underneath an upper-level anti-cyclone and appeared to be a tropical depression on satellite 24 hours before it was designated Tropical Storm Fay. Currently Fay is south of Cuba moving to the WNW. The storm is beginning to go through a substantial strengthening phase with winds of 50 mph. The infrared, visible, and water vapor satellite images all indicate cloud tops have grown, cooled, and are continuing to develop. So, what is the forecast for Fay and where will it make landfall?


The NHC is currently tracking Fay across Cuba, through the keys and into the Tampa Bay area. I have a few friends that disagree with this track, and rather think the storm will move up the coast and hit in the Big Bend/Panhandle of Florida. The difference between a Tampa landfall and a Panhandle landfall is huge, not only in track, but in intensity since Fay would have many more hours to strengthen if it moved through the entire Gulf of Mexico. Looking at the models, and what is currently occurring in the southeastern United States, it is difficult for me to go against the NHC. The current track is in the middle of the forecast envelope, with the only models bringing the storm further west being the NOGAPS, BAMS, and SHIPS models. Each of these models are considered inferior models to the European, GFS, GFDL, UKMET, CMC, and others. This makes it difficult to go with the more western tracks.

Model Tracks

On top of this, the GFS ensembles have started to come into better alignment with a Tampa landfall as well. A few are still going to the west into the central Gulf, but this seems very unlikely considering the upper air maps.

GFS Ensembles

The GFS is currently forecasting a strong ridge located over the south-central/western United States, with a weakening in the ridge forecasted near Florida. The GFS then tracks the storm up the western coast of Florida into Tampa.

GFS 500 mb Forecasted Heights

The current upper air sounding data supports the GFS solution. So, in the end, I find it difficult to go against GREAT model agreement, upper-level support for the solution of the GFS, and the current strengthening of Fay which would support an earlier turn. All in all, I agree with the NHC with a near Tampa landfall. Considering the storm will be moving directly up the coast, it will be difficult to pinpoint the exact landfall, but I doubt it will go into the panhandle. At the furthest north, we could see a Big Bend landfall if Cuba disrupts the circulation resulting in a redeveloped center of circulation further west for some reason.

Upper-Air Rawinsonde

As for the strength, the island of Cuba should do a number on Fay as the storm crosses. I expect Fay to continue to strengthen while it is over the highest TCHP waters in the entire Tropical Atlantic as long as it stays south of Cuba. This should bring Fay to near Hurricane strength, possibly near 70 mph. Cuba will then interfere with Fay, breaking up the circulation a bit, likely weakening Fay slightly or at least not allowing Fay to develop while over land. Fay will likely come off of Cuba with winds 65-70 mph and begin to move up the coast. If the circulation is broken up Fay will have a very difficult time developing much further before landfall as the storm begins to race to the north. I think a Cat 1, 85 mph looks probable if Fay makes it all the way to Tampa as predicted. If Fay makes landfall near Naples it will be weaker, if it stays over water and makes it to the Big Bend we could see a high end Cat 2. TCHP is much lower in the northeastern Gulf, so I don't see a major at landfall.