Fay makes 2nd landfall

Fay made landfall around 5 am EST near Cape Romano. This was well south of the original forecasted landfall site of Tampa, but still a decent forecast for the NHC and myself considering any little change east/west was going to lead to a large change in the north/south landfalling location. In Fay's case, it found the weakness in the ridge a bit early and pulled north through Cuba and then directly over Key West. From the time Fay started to pull north south of Cuba it was obvious Fay was not making it to the Tampa area. The overall track was right, but just shifted to the west 50 miles too much.

But that correct track was only good through landfall on the western portion of Florida. While Fay was still south of Cuba the models were generally forecasting Fay to move north into the Ohio Valley and into Canada in 5-6 days. This would have brought some needed rain to the southeast, but not the drastic flooding threat of a very slow moving system. Oh how things have changed! Now all of the models are forecasting Fay to move up Florida...possibly make it off the coast into the Atlantic (which I think it will) and then turn back west making a third landfall either in Florida or Georgia. A few models are saying South Carolina, but I think that a landfall that far north is impossible at this point, considering the large ridge that will be building in pushing Fay west. The furthest north I see Fay going is the Florida/Georgia border, which seems to be the consensus location.

However, we know how well consensus locations have worked with Fay so far. I am not fully buying even landfall that far north. I am inclined to go with the more recent GFS solution which stalls Fay just off the coast of Florida, allowing her to re-strengthen to a strong Tropical Storm or weak Hurricane before backing back into Florida near Daytona Beach, or slightly north of there. Fay will then have a very good chance of pushing across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico to make a FOURTH landfall in the panhandle of Florida/AL/MS/LA, depending on how strong the ridge becomes. I think the most likely location is the panhandle, but this is still 6-7 days away! It is possible Fay makes one more landfall near the coast of Florida while it is stalled drifting around. Fay could make up to 5 landfalls on the US before this is over (not to mention Haiti, Cuba, and Cuba again).

Yes, Fay is going to be around for a while. The flooding threat from Fay is going to be immense. A slow moving system tracking over the same general locations for days is never a good thing. In a worse case scenario Fay stalls very close to the Florida coast, but just offshore. It strengthens, continuing to rain over northern Florida for 2-3 days, then pulls back into Florida as a weak Hurricane, raining for an additional day to day and a half. This would lead to 20+ inches of rainfall from Fay in the Daytona Breach area into Orlando. Major flooding would occur and lives would be threatened. I am hoping the storm moves out to sea enough to keep the rain away while strengthening, or does not come off the coast before it moves back west. In any case, northern Florida is going to get hammered.

The good news, Fay should bring some much needed rainfall to the southeast, including Georgia which is still in the middle of its worst drought ever.

In the rest of the tropics, another tropical wave (Invest 94L) is currently floundering in the central Atlantic. Convection wained this morning, but a broad circulation is present. If the system can get its act together in the next 2 days we might have our 7th named storm of the year...but if it doesn't, higher shear will start to impact the system likely killing it. Something to watch, definitely with the models trending towards a brush with Florida...again!