Philip, SD Weather Update

Yesterdays Forecast Specifics:

NWS Forecast: 91F
My Forecast: 88F
Actual High: 91F

What happened? Philip was the only city in the area to reach a high in the 90s. In fact, Pine Ridge, a location that is often warmer than Philip, only reached 89F. The reason was that cloudy conditions did not move in quite as quickly as predicted. Once the clouds moved in, the temperature dropped from 91F to 88F in an hour. My forecast wasn't bad...just unlucky.

NWS Forecast low: 64F
My Low: 65F
Actual Low: 63F

What happened? Nothing too substantial here. Dewpoints went a degree lower than I thought and the temperature approached it much more efficiently.

Rainfall: None

What happened? Storms developed in the Black Hills as I expected, but a widespread heavy rain or thunderstorm event was just not in the cards. Some thunderstorms developed as an upper level system traversed through the area, but the most robust lift and forcing was either too far south (NE/KS/OK) and further west (ID/MT/WY) which was what I expected.

Conditions expected today:

I still like my forecast of 88F (NWS: 88F). There should be much more cloudiness than yesterday and considering Philip was able to reach 91F yesterday, I think it will be just a few degrees cooler with winds out of the southeast at 5-15 mph today. Thunderstorms look to develop in the mid afternoon as CAPE values approach 1500 J/kg and CIN degrades. LI will have values near -5, helicity will be minimal (< 100), and preciptable water will be near 1.5 inches. With low helicity, the threat of tornadic storms looks to be minimal. However, with steep lapse rates and decent instability there should be a few severe thunderstorms today, with hail being the primary threat. A strengthening low level jet in the evening will lead to a greater wind threat, but the low level jet doesn't look to be too substantial this evening as compared to past events. I think we will see some heavy rainfall and large hail in the Black Hills followed by storms moving east through the late afternoon into the evening as a cold front and upper level disturbances move through the region.

Tomorrow morning also looks to be an active time period, with decent instability once again present over the area as the cold front continues to traverse South Dakota and North Dakota. Severe weather is once again possible. Highs could be substantially cooler than on Sunday with 850 mb temps forecasted to be near 17C by the NAM in the peak heating period in the afternoon. However, the GFS brings 850 mb temps back up to 20C by 7pm. This would give a range of 77F-86F. MOS has a large range as well with GFS at 94F and ETA at 86F. Considering the GFS MOS has no rainfall, and rainfall looks likely in my opinion today through mid-afternoon tomorrow, I am going to lean closer to the cooler solution. 86F sounds good at this time. (NWS: 87F).