Evidence Mounts

I am not going to say the NHC is wrong with the northern path, but it sure is starting to look questionable.

First, lets take a quick look at the evidence:

SREFS 10m wind, 4 days out:

GEFS low pressure, 5 days out:

GFS 4 and 8 days:

CMC 5 days out:

The NHC has Fay into North Carolina in 5 days. All of the models above move Fay north much more slowly, most stall it in the Atlantic off of the Florida coast and bring it back west. The GFS has been consistent with the last two runs and again has Fay hitting Florida three times! Also, the European at 12Z is also still predicting a strengthening storm making landfall on the eastern coast of Florida in 4-5 days. It even almost brings it back into the Gulf like the GFS! This mounting evidence makes me want to think that Fay is more likely to cross Florida and get into the Atlantic, allowing for additional development until a second landfall occurs either in SC, GA, or FL. I am sceptical of the third landfall in the panhandle of Florida, but it is a possibility if the ridge builds in strongly before Fay can move north. The more slowly Fay moves, the greater the risk of a second landfall on the southeast coast after rapid strengthening over the Gulf Stream.

So, now with this evidence, I feel safe to say that Fay will move across Florida and into the Atlantic, allowing it to strengthen before a second landfall sometime in 3-5 days. Fay is not going to be a short lived system. The NHC has fay dissipated after 120 hrs, or in 5 days. I guess we will see who is right. However, the NHC comes out with a new forecast at 5 pm eastern, or in two hours. It is possible they may shift the track into the Atlantic as well.

I guess it also should be mentioned that the CMC/UKMET/NOGAPS bring Fay right up the spine of Florida before weakening. This would be because the ridge is even stronger than the GFS/European are forecasting, and would not allow Fay to strengthen. The models still predict a stall and move towards the Gulf of Mexico, but a much weaker system would result because of the extended period over land.