94L Getting Its Act Together

94L is in one of the classic tropical development stages where it transforms from being part of the ITCZ into a tropical low entity all on its own. The system has been traversing northwestward through the night, has intensified its convection, and developed a more considerable circulation. The circulation is not yet at the surface, at least per QSCAT imagery, but could reach the surface within 24-36 hours at its current development pace. We will likely see the convection wane through the day as the diurnal minimum approaches over water, but with the separation from the ITCZ commencing, a low trying to develop, high pressure building over the system, warm sea surface temperatures, and low shear...development looks very likely at this point. I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC up the development probabilities to a high chance in the next update or later today (NHC).

Here is the current visible satellite image of 94L:

Do you notice the wave axis? How about the ITCZ convection streamers? It is difficult on a still image, so here is an image that should help you:

The red curved lines help define the wave and are convection along the ITCZ. The Green line is the wave axis (which actually should be tilted the opposite direction, to the south-southeast). The yellow line indicates the storm's motion so far (to the northwest), while the red arrows indicate the present visible rotation, with a guessed low location indicated by the 'L'. 94L is currently moving towards the northwest, breaking off from the ITCZ which is a very important step in tropical development. Once the break is complete, convection will likely wane a bit until the low level circulation is well established. This should occur over the next 24-36 hours as the system approached Hispaniola and Cuba. At that point 94L should have a low level circulation, and I think will be our 7th depression of the season. Considering the potential here with high sea surface temps and low shear, I think 94L could be a 'major' influence in the Caribbean to Mexico...possibly even the Gulf later this week.

94L will continue its northwest track as long as the trough to the north is in place. However, this trough will pull out, allowing another ridge to build in, pushing 94L back west again in 48 hours or so. This should place 94L near Jamaica, or in the heart of the Caribbean Sea. Hopefully Hispaniola or Cuba can do a number on the system, but at this point I am very concerned that we could see a strong hurricane later in the week.