Hanna Update

Tropical Storm Hanna has been moving east-southeast over the last 5 hours, a little different than yesterday. The map below shows the vortex messages (red circled the most recent) produced by the Hurricane Hunters. They have not been able to find any flight level winds above 70 mph, so the storm has stayed a Tropical Storm, with reduced wind speeds of 65 mph. I have no problem with that forecast.



Also since last time, the 18Z models have come out, and the trend has been to go back eastward again! Basically, the models are not really sure what Hanna will do and we won't know until she starts moving north. I am still sticking with my GA/SC border landfall location, mainly because I put forth that forecast yesterday. However, my confidence is low at this point. Definitely a wait and see situation.

Ike and Josephine have both intensified over the day, up to 65 and 50 mph respectively. Ike will likely be a hurricane tomorrow, and if shear doesn't get too strong in 48-72 hours, could be a category 2 storm. The SHIPS model is forecasting stronger shear during that time, so Ike could weaken back to a Tropical Storm, but conditions will once again become more favorable in 5 days. Ike looks like it could be a major threat for some land mass in the future. I question the shear forecast, but we shall see. Currently Ike is under an upper-level anti-cyclone which has helped the system strengthen.