Hurricane Ike Model Issues

The models seem to be coming into better agreement of Ike continuing its west-southwest motion until it comes very close to hitting Cuba, or hits Cuba. Then, a trough diving through the east will interact with Ike pulling it northwest towards Florida. All of this makes sense, but then the models either stop (GFDL, HWRF,BAMS, all other tropical models) or do something interesting (besides the GFS)...they do not pull Ike north and out with the trough, rather they leave Ike behind near Florida to push westward into the central Gulf to a landfall who-knows-where. Yes, the models have went from an east coast storm, just one day ago, to a gulf coast storm that could stall in the center of the Gulf (European model). That is a huge change!

So what can a little model knowledge get out of this? Well, one thing is important to remember, models tend to over-strengthen troughs at this time of year (Fall). They want to push the troughs further south, influencing a potential tropical system to pull north, and this is probably what they were doing a day or two ago. The European was the first to start hinting at a Gulf storm, and the European is also the one model that has the least issues with driving a trough south. Interesting! So in other words, it looks like the European might have been the correct model.

Right now the European, CMC, UKMET, and GFDL (of the reliable models) push Ike into the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS, HWRF, and NOGAPS bring Ike to Florida and then pull it north along the peninsula, slowly (a worse case flood threat). And the models keep trending further west! As of this time, I am completely on board with a Florida or Cuba landfall. Now the question is whether or not the trough pulls Ike to the north. Considering model biases at this time of the year, and this trough not influencing Ike for another 4-5 days, I think the trough will NOT pull Ike out to the north. The rebuilding ridge will likely push Ike into the central Gulf, where it could move very slowly (not like Gustav). I could picture Ike being pulled north but the trough towards the Keys, then being left behind just over southwest Florida or off the coast (in the Gulf), to be pushed out into the Gulf. Depending on the strength of the ridge building in from the east, Ike could go anywhere in the Gulf...in other words, everyone needs to be watching throughout the Gulf coast!