Update

The NHC has increased the chance of the system off of the African coast to a High chance of development and state that it might become a depression today or tonight! That's much faster than I expected, but I wouldn't be surprised either. The system does look well structured, but it is rare that the NHC calls a system a depression within only one day of it moving off the coast because they like to see persistence. But we shall see...

Scary European model run at 12Z. The run brings Hanna up just off the Florida coast into Savannah, Georgia as a substantial hurricane. That alone is a bad solution, but add in future Ike (Tropical Depression 9) moving into the Gulf after traversing over Cuba...but instead of zooming to the Gulf coast, it sits around and regenerates into a monster. This season is FAR from done.

I am not saying Ike will be in the Gulf just yet, but it is a little worrying when the European continues to be so consistent with its track. Currently the GFS loses the system after 48 hours, so it is difficult to determine what it is saying. However, the models are very consistent with the upper-level environment surrounding Hanna, and track it about to the same area. So, it can be assumed that they are consistent with future Ike as well and the GFS might bring it to the Gulf. The CMC, GFDL, and UKMET also bring it towards Cuba or Florida.

In my next update I will take a close look at Hanna and try to make some predictions of strength and landfall location. I don't expect Hanna to strengthen much more before 48 hours passes (until Gustav's effects weaken), but I also wasn't expecting it to already be a hurricane. I didn't pinpoint the center of Hanna very well, and I thought it was on the northern edge of the convection. Instead it was within the convection, indicating that it was organizing better than before. We will have to watch and see if this convective burst continues through today.