Ike Is Trying To Surprise

If what I am seeing is true, then the Keys are going to be in the worst possible location. This morning Ike was travelling west-southwest, but the westward turn began as Ike approached the large southern island of the Bahamas (Great Inagua Island). This was fine, and expected. However, since Ike moved away from the island a stronger west-NORTHwest turn has started. A west-northwest track would bring Ike along the entire northern coast of Cuba, never allowing the storm to make landfall...which is a very strong possibility. Remember, the track has called for this west-northwest track, only over the entire length of Cuba. Thus, the forecast strength has been for Ike to weaken to a strong Tropical Storm or Category 1 Hurricane. Now, if Ike tracks right along the coast, over water, Ike will likely keep its strength and impact the Keys as a Category 4 Hurricane (or worse...).

I can only hope that this shift is a wobble, but if I was living in the Keys I would not be liking what I am seeing. I am sure the NHC update at 5 pm will give us a lot more information. But with the models trending further and further north (the GFDL and HWRF now bringing Ike just inland along the northern coast of Cuba), a complete miss is still possible. The models are now performing even better than yesterday because the hurricane hunters have sent in their high density data missions into the hurricane and sent up special soundings from Florida. All of this extra data has resulted in this northern shift in the models.

I will update again before 6 pm EST with what I am thinking this storm will do. Obviously we need to watch this current motion and see if it continues. If it does, Ike will likely be stronger than forecasted, be able to get into the Gulf as a major hurricane, and track a little to the east side of the forecasted cone. This would put LA/MS/AL in the greater risk zone. I have been thinking since Ike entered the islands that Ike was going to central Louisiana...but we shall see.