93L Tropical Disturbance Organizing

The tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean is slowly strengthening and has a rather robust area of convection near the low level circulation at this hour. The system is in an area of moderate wind shear, which is forecasted to drop to near 5-10 knots over the next few days (per the SHIPS model). This looks reasonable considering the upper air maps. Sea surface temperatures are not a problem, and the steering maps seem to want to move the system towards to west. However, model data indicates that the storm should move more to the northwest over Puerto Rico into the southwest Atlantic. The eventual development of the strong low level center will help determine where 93L will track.

A high pressure system will move into the northeast US or just off the northeast coast, beginning to push energy strongly into the area just off the southeast coast. This pile up of energy should lead to extra-tropical, or tropical, development in this area. Considering the development of 93L, it is possible that some of this energy, or all of this energy, becomes absorbed into 93L...or visa versa. What results off the southeast coast will be very important towards 93L's long term life span.

Further development is possible in the eastern and central Atlantic from strong tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa. The European, NOGAPS, CMC, and GFS have all been trying to produce at least one tropical system from the next 2-3 waves, including the one currently in the eastern Atlantic. However, they have jumped from one wave to the next many times (except for the GFS, which has continually forecasted the first wave to develop), so it is difficult to say which wave might develop. The current wave is very far south where coriolis is weak. As the system moves further north the development chances will increase.

Right now I am sure something will develop off the southeastern coast...the question will be whether or not 93L is able to develop quickly before the southeastern storm develops later in the week. If 93L does develop, the storm along the energy being piled along the southeast coast might actually go into 93L and result in a stronger system. There is still a lot of uncertainty off the southeast coast...but a strom will definately be there.