Hurricane Ike

There really isn't much to add today regarding the track, however strength is another issue! Ike has restrengthened into a Category 4 Hurricane and is currently moving west-southwest. This west-southwest motion has moved the system away from the strongest shear. Ike should steadily strengthen until its expected landfall somewhere on the northern coast of Cuba. A Category 5 storm could be very possible now considering Ike has another 24 hours (at least) over warm waters. The stronger Ike gets, however, the greater chance the storm will 'feel' the weakness to the north and it is still possible Ike parallels the Cuban north coast into the gulf. I personally think it will make landfall, but not for very long.

The storm will then head into the Gulf of Mexico, likely weakened by the passage over Cuba. If its anything like Gustav, Ike will need 2-3 days to re-organize. Luckily for the storm (not good for the US) the storm should have 3-5 days to re-organize while the trough that will pull it into the gulf pulls out and a ridge builds in before the next trough. I think Ike could easily re-strengthen into a Category 4/5 storm in the Gulf. The real question will be whether or not the storm is interfered by the next trough, increasing shear before the storm makes landfall, hopefully weakening the storm. Right now the GFS, CMC, and European models do not look good for those in the gulf coast.

A landfall location can still not be pinpointed at this time, but I think the northern Gulf from the Big Bend of Florida to the TX/LA border looks to be the area of most danger after the storm passes into the gulf (after the Cuba landfall and close encounter with the Keys).