Hanna is looking very ragged right now in satellite imagery. The system has gained considerable convection over the last few hours, but shear and dry air are still battering the storm. The satellite image above (IR because visible wasn't showing much at the moment) indicates the convective burst by the bright red colors. However, notice the sharp transition from red to no clouds on the south side of the system. This is because of southerly shear pushing the cloud tops off to the north and abundant dry air on the southern side that has been entrained into the storm.
Hanna is currently trying to wrap this convection around the center, but it appears the shear might be winning out, pushing the strongest convection towards the north away from the low level center. This does not bode well for Hanna (or, in SC and NC case, bodes very well!) for as long as the shear holds up, the storm is going to have a very difficult time strengthening. Hanna is not doing what it did earlier in the southern Bahamas, where it was able to strengthen to a hurricane even though it was in a high shear environment. Even on radar imagery the system does not look to be organizing its low level center.
Right now the track forecast for Hanna looks fairly certain with a landfall in norther south Carolina. If anything I could see it move slightly to the east of there, but I don't see much of a reason to doubt the great model consensus. My original prediction of a GA/SC border landfall wasn't too far off considering I was thinking it would most likely make landfall on the SC side. However, my strength forecast of a Category 2 hurricane was well off, mainly because the shear did not die down like the models has suggested it would.
Hurricane Ike
Ike is looking a bit worse today, having undergone northeasterly shear for the last 24 hours or so. The shear has bit into the eye of the hurricane and we should see some weakening, kind of like what occurred with Gustav as it moved into the Gulf, over the next 1-2 days. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ike as a Category 1/2 storm in two days time if the shear stays as it is currently. However, after two days the upper-level low will pull northward, removing the shear, and a ridge will build in from the east. This will put Ike back into a favorable upper-level wind pattern, and the storm should begin to restrengthen.
My theory is if Ike is able to redevelop its circular eye, this storm is likely to bomb out on its way to the Bahamas and then Cuba/Florida. If the shear has so degraded the system that 1-2 days will be needed to restrengthen the storm, Ike may make it to the Bahamas before getting its eye structured again. A weaker storm will be more likely to push further south than a strong system, so this could have major implications on storm track. However, considering Ike's presentation at the moment, and the favorable conditions ahead of it, I am leaning towards the stronger end. I wouldn't be shocked to see a nice eye form in 2-3 days as it approaches the Bahamas, allowing the system to charge up off of the warm (relatively un-disturbed from a weakened Hanna) waters.
Right now, with great model consensus, southern Florida looks as the greatest threat location. However, the models have been trending more and more west/south with the system, and Ike could try to go through the Florida Straights towards Key West and then curve up the western coast of Florida...or hit Cuba. A few models still turn Ike up the eastern seaboard into the Carolinas, but its looking less likely. I wouldn't rule it out since five day forecasts can be full of errors (ex: Hanna, Gustav for strength!), but the tracks forecasts this year, by the models and NHC, have been extremely good. The GFDL (except for Fay) has been right on this year in regard to track, and it currently has Ike plowing into Cuba and then moving up the western coast of Florida.
Tropical Storm Josephine
This system can easily be described by the image above. As they say, a 'picture' says a thousand words. (Quickly: Highly sheared, exposed low level circulation. Often described as a 'naked' swirl. A good indication of a weakening, or dissipating, system. Jo is going to need a new burst of convection or its done.)
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