In Stone Now

Ike has moved well into Cuba, making landfall as a borderline Cat 3/4 Hurricane. The storm has weakened down to 100 mph and should continue to weaken as long as the system is over the Cuban land mass. However, Ike has continued its westward movement and looks like it could make it over the Caribbean before it moves back across Cuba into the Gulf. This would reduce Ike's weakening and possibly allow it to regain its structure more quickly in the Gulf. We will have to wait and see what happens today.

Once Ike gets into the Gulf, the short range and global models are converging on a solution near the TX/LA border. I give each state a 50/50 chance of landfall. However, the GFDL and HWRF, the two hurricane models, are forecasting a central LA landfall at this time. Considering the great job the GFDL has done this year, and its near perfect solution of Ike's (so far) traverse over Cuba, it seems like it would be a good idea to highly weight this solution. I still think central LA is the best bet, but with all of the others converging towards the border region, a Texas hit is not out of the question. It really matters whether or not Ike feels the trough moving to the north as it approaches LA. If it does, its moving into LA. If not, its going towards the border or Houston. Right now I think it will feel just enough to move inland in central to western LA.