That's about all there is to say about them. It started with Ike moving up the eastern seaboard a week ago, and then the models picked up on the trough not being strong enough. So then it turned into a storm hitting the western coast of Florida...and then the models picked up on the ridge being stronger. And then it was Ike moving up the spine of Cuba towards Louisiana...and now the storm is on the western side of Cuba and the models are trending towards central to northern Texas!
Basically, the models have been very poor with Ike, completely underestimating the strength of the ridges and troughs, trying to break down the ridge much more than has occurred. This is a VERY common error in the models, but it is also VERY difficult to forecast exactly when the models are making this mistake. There were two big clues this time.
The first was the European model, a model which often does not over-strengthen a trough. The European consistently brought Ike into the Keys or Cuba before Ike moved into the Bahamas. Also, when Ike finally reached the Bahamas it has consistently been bringing Ike towards Texas...so it has been the best performing model so far in my opinion.
The second clue has to do with teleconnections. In asia, 7-10 days ago, the troughs that swung through Japan were not as strong as being predicted by the models on the eastern seaboard of the United States. Since eastern US weather is often hinted at by Japanese weather 7-10 days in advance, this would have been a good indication that Ike might not have been pulled up the eastern coast of the US, or even into Florida.
So here we are now, with Ike still moving west, over the warm waters of the Caribbean, likely headed towards Texas...somewhere. I am giving up pinpointing a location right now, and instead I am just going to go along for the ride. Like I said a few days ago, Ike is giving us a show. A show that was not very well anticipated. A strong hurricane has NEVER done this track before, from the mid-Atlantic at a latitude of Florida, to hit Cuba or even go into the Gulf! History is being made by Ike.
Note: Ike will likely be retired as it has done catastrophic damage so the islands of the Turks and Caicos, Bahamas, and Cuba...and its not even done. Already estimates of over 90% of buildings in the T&C and Bahamas islands effected have been damaged or destroyed and over 70 people have been killed in Haiti. This has been a very bad tropical year for the islands and there are still many months to go.
Basically, the models have been very poor with Ike, completely underestimating the strength of the ridges and troughs, trying to break down the ridge much more than has occurred. This is a VERY common error in the models, but it is also VERY difficult to forecast exactly when the models are making this mistake. There were two big clues this time.
The first was the European model, a model which often does not over-strengthen a trough. The European consistently brought Ike into the Keys or Cuba before Ike moved into the Bahamas. Also, when Ike finally reached the Bahamas it has consistently been bringing Ike towards Texas...so it has been the best performing model so far in my opinion.
The second clue has to do with teleconnections. In asia, 7-10 days ago, the troughs that swung through Japan were not as strong as being predicted by the models on the eastern seaboard of the United States. Since eastern US weather is often hinted at by Japanese weather 7-10 days in advance, this would have been a good indication that Ike might not have been pulled up the eastern coast of the US, or even into Florida.
So here we are now, with Ike still moving west, over the warm waters of the Caribbean, likely headed towards Texas...somewhere. I am giving up pinpointing a location right now, and instead I am just going to go along for the ride. Like I said a few days ago, Ike is giving us a show. A show that was not very well anticipated. A strong hurricane has NEVER done this track before, from the mid-Atlantic at a latitude of Florida, to hit Cuba or even go into the Gulf! History is being made by Ike.
Note: Ike will likely be retired as it has done catastrophic damage so the islands of the Turks and Caicos, Bahamas, and Cuba...and its not even done. Already estimates of over 90% of buildings in the T&C and Bahamas islands effected have been damaged or destroyed and over 70 people have been killed in Haiti. This has been a very bad tropical year for the islands and there are still many months to go.
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