Tropical Update

I have been busy the last week moving to Wichita, KS...but I am here now and I will try to write updates more often.

The tropics have been rather calm now for about 4 days. However, this 'lull' in activity (if you can call it a lull after just dealing with Ike) looks to end soon. A few models are forecasting a system to form from the disturbed area in the eastern Caribbean in the next 2-5 days. The NHC has this area as a moderate risk of development. Atmospheric conditions look moderately favorable over the next three days, with shear holding steady between 10 and 20 knots. If the shear is in the upper end, the disturbed area will take a longer period to develop, but if its near 10 knots, we could see a depression from in the next two days.

Currently a mid-level circulation is trying to develop, but no closed circulation is noted at the surface. Upper-level divergence has developed over the system, as well as some low-level convergence. Decent 850 vorticity is also present with the system. Sea surface temperatures are not an issue.

So, it does look like it is possible for a system to develop in this area as long as Hispaniola and shear do not disrupt the system completely. The models have two possible solutions: one north of Hispaniola into the Bahamas and the other through the western Caribbean. Looking at the upper-level steering winds, it looks like the system should track just south of Hispaniola rather than cross over it. However, the cloud pattern is very large, and it really depends on where the low-level circulation develops.

Another issue is a building high pressure system over the northeast, which will funnel energy towards the southeast coast. If energy keeps getting piled up in this region for days, history tells us that a system can develop just off the GA/SC/NC/FL coast. Many of the models do predict a system to develop in this area. However, it will likely be a hybrid system rather than completely tropical at first. Over time it could transition if the high holds on not allowing the system to track up the east coast and out to sea. This will be something to watch.

The last system, that looks the most likely, is a wave currently coming off the African coast which the GFS, NOGAPS, and CMC all predict will develop into a depression by early next week. The European also forecasts a storm off the African coast, but not until the next wave. I think it is safe to say we will see something out near Africa by the end of the next week.

The tropical season is far from over. Don't let your guard down.