Hanna has weakened slightly this morning and is currently a 70 mph hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters are currently in the system and have found a minimum pressure of 985 mb and flight level winds near 70 mph. The instrument that measures surface winds has been recording near 100 mph winds over the last 20 minutes...but the upper-level winds do not support this. So, I am thinking their instrument must be recording bad data, and if I was at the NHC right now I would keep Hanna a Tropical Storm.
The storm has continued its drift to the southwest today as strong shear continues to batter the system from the northwest. The shear has been produced by Gustav, and should decrease in the next 24 hours-48 hours. Until then, Hanna is going to have a very difficult time strengthening. When the shear lightens up, the storm may then go through a strengthening phase as it is pushed to the northwest as a ridge builds in from the east. The models have been trending further and further west/south with each model run, and right now the consensus is in southern GA/northern FL. Generally the models bring Hanna close to Florida and then drive it right up the coast, just out to sea, towards the GA/FL border. With Hanna still not showing any desire to move north, it is still very difficult to pinpoint a landfall location.
I still think Hanna could become a Category 2 hurricane once the shear dies down. The storm has been very resilient and should be able to strengthen once the atmospheric conditions become a bit more conducive for strengthening.
A little note on Ike: The storm has strengthened some and is still moving west. Atmospheric conditions and models still support the same conditions as yesterday, so the track should keep west-northwest and then west to west-southwest over the next 5-7 days. Any forecasting of a storm's path beyond seven days is foolish, but a US landfall is definitely possible. Josephine has also developed in the far eastern Atlantic, the 10th named system of the season.
No comments:
Post a Comment