TROPICAL STORM HANNA
On the IR image/map, with the numbers, # 1 is Gustav and #2 is Hanna. The others are all areas of interest. Hanna is looking a lot better than it did yesterday. It is still in a favorable area of sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclone heat potential waters for tropical development, but shear out of the north produced by Gustav and a weakening upper-level low is hampering its development. However, a large plume of convection occured during the night, and now great south side outflow is present. This indicates that once the shear dies down on the north side, the southern side is already ripe for strengthening. This shear will likely start to wane as Gustav weakens over land. I give Hanna another 24-36 hours of difficulty developing, followed by an excellent period for a day or two afterwards. The models generally have Hanna stalled for 48 hours, and then moving north-northwest until a landfall in FL/GA/SC/NC. I think Hanna will likely be a Hurricane by that time as it moves up through a weakness in the ridge.
# 3 AND 4
# 3 on the map is a disturbed area which is in a high shear envionment. There is no low level circulation at this time and the system had little chance of development as it moves northwest. The NHC gives it a low chance of development. # 4 is a new area of disturbed weather near the islands that generated over the night. Nothing has really come together at this point and no models are forecasting development in this region. It is something to watch, but is unlikely to develop with its proximity to Hanna. If thunderstorms were to persist into the central Caribbean when Hanna moves north, something could come if it, but right now I give it a very low chance, same as the NHC.
# 5 AND 6
# 5 is the best looking system at the moment. A low level circulation looks to be developing and the NHC says that a depression is likely developing as I write this. Great circulation is present and the area is in a location of low shear. Development looks likely, and we should have a new depression today. The storm will move towards the westnorthwest for a while, as a ridge builds in to the east of Hanna and then back in where Hanna will move north. This should push # 5 well to the west, into the northern Caribbean islands, or just north of them. This is something that must be watched as it has a chance of being a land interacter. #6 is a wave currently moving off of the African coast that has a chance of development over the next few days. However, it is going to need some time to transition into its water environment and I don't expect immediate development.
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