Fay Continues Across Florida

Fay is continuing its trek across Florida and is currently right in the middle of the state. The NHC has said the storm has dropped in pressure since it made landfall and an eye feature has appeared while over land! Fay is obviously strengthening while over land, which is very rare. Florida has such flat land and abundant moisture that it appears it is doing little to interfere with Fay.

Consistency with the GFS and European models is starting to make me worried that we really will have the Gulf of Mexico solution. Both models have been consistent now for two days bringing Fay off the eastern coast of Florida and then back across into the Gulf, making landfall in the panhandle to LA border region. I am leaning towards this solution, especially with the GFDL and HWRF trending towards the GFS and European. Should be very interesting.

Fay makes 2nd landfall

Fay made landfall around 5 am EST near Cape Romano. This was well south of the original forecasted landfall site of Tampa, but still a decent forecast for the NHC and myself considering any little change east/west was going to lead to a large change in the north/south landfalling location. In Fay's case, it found the weakness in the ridge a bit early and pulled north through Cuba and then directly over Key West. From the time Fay started to pull north south of Cuba it was obvious Fay was not making it to the Tampa area. The overall track was right, but just shifted to the west 50 miles too much.

But that correct track was only good through landfall on the western portion of Florida. While Fay was still south of Cuba the models were generally forecasting Fay to move north into the Ohio Valley and into Canada in 5-6 days. This would have brought some needed rain to the southeast, but not the drastic flooding threat of a very slow moving system. Oh how things have changed! Now all of the models are forecasting Fay to move up Florida...possibly make it off the coast into the Atlantic (which I think it will) and then turn back west making a third landfall either in Florida or Georgia. A few models are saying South Carolina, but I think that a landfall that far north is impossible at this point, considering the large ridge that will be building in pushing Fay west. The furthest north I see Fay going is the Florida/Georgia border, which seems to be the consensus location.

However, we know how well consensus locations have worked with Fay so far. I am not fully buying even landfall that far north. I am inclined to go with the more recent GFS solution which stalls Fay just off the coast of Florida, allowing her to re-strengthen to a strong Tropical Storm or weak Hurricane before backing back into Florida near Daytona Beach, or slightly north of there. Fay will then have a very good chance of pushing across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico to make a FOURTH landfall in the panhandle of Florida/AL/MS/LA, depending on how strong the ridge becomes. I think the most likely location is the panhandle, but this is still 6-7 days away! It is possible Fay makes one more landfall near the coast of Florida while it is stalled drifting around. Fay could make up to 5 landfalls on the US before this is over (not to mention Haiti, Cuba, and Cuba again).

Yes, Fay is going to be around for a while. The flooding threat from Fay is going to be immense. A slow moving system tracking over the same general locations for days is never a good thing. In a worse case scenario Fay stalls very close to the Florida coast, but just offshore. It strengthens, continuing to rain over northern Florida for 2-3 days, then pulls back into Florida as a weak Hurricane, raining for an additional day to day and a half. This would lead to 20+ inches of rainfall from Fay in the Daytona Breach area into Orlando. Major flooding would occur and lives would be threatened. I am hoping the storm moves out to sea enough to keep the rain away while strengthening, or does not come off the coast before it moves back west. In any case, northern Florida is going to get hammered.

The good news, Fay should bring some much needed rainfall to the southeast, including Georgia which is still in the middle of its worst drought ever.

In the rest of the tropics, another tropical wave (Invest 94L) is currently floundering in the central Atlantic. Convection wained this morning, but a broad circulation is present. If the system can get its act together in the next 2 days we might have our 7th named storm of the year...but if it doesn't, higher shear will start to impact the system likely killing it. Something to watch, definitely with the models trending towards a brush with Florida...again!

Evidence Mounts

I am not going to say the NHC is wrong with the northern path, but it sure is starting to look questionable.

First, lets take a quick look at the evidence:

SREFS 10m wind, 4 days out:

GEFS low pressure, 5 days out:

GFS 4 and 8 days:

CMC 5 days out:

The NHC has Fay into North Carolina in 5 days. All of the models above move Fay north much more slowly, most stall it in the Atlantic off of the Florida coast and bring it back west. The GFS has been consistent with the last two runs and again has Fay hitting Florida three times! Also, the European at 12Z is also still predicting a strengthening storm making landfall on the eastern coast of Florida in 4-5 days. It even almost brings it back into the Gulf like the GFS! This mounting evidence makes me want to think that Fay is more likely to cross Florida and get into the Atlantic, allowing for additional development until a second landfall occurs either in SC, GA, or FL. I am sceptical of the third landfall in the panhandle of Florida, but it is a possibility if the ridge builds in strongly before Fay can move north. The more slowly Fay moves, the greater the risk of a second landfall on the southeast coast after rapid strengthening over the Gulf Stream.

So, now with this evidence, I feel safe to say that Fay will move across Florida and into the Atlantic, allowing it to strengthen before a second landfall sometime in 3-5 days. Fay is not going to be a short lived system. The NHC has fay dissipated after 120 hrs, or in 5 days. I guess we will see who is right. However, the NHC comes out with a new forecast at 5 pm eastern, or in two hours. It is possible they may shift the track into the Atlantic as well.

I guess it also should be mentioned that the CMC/UKMET/NOGAPS bring Fay right up the spine of Florida before weakening. This would be because the ridge is even stronger than the GFS/European are forecasting, and would not allow Fay to strengthen. The models still predict a stall and move towards the Gulf of Mexico, but a much weaker system would result because of the extended period over land.

Fay makes landfall in Key West

The radar indicates that Tropical Storm Fay is currently making landfall, or will within the hour, at Key West, Florida. Here are the current conditions:


Humidity: 96 %
Wind Speed: N 33 G 51 MPH
Barometer: 29.64" (1003.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 76°F (24°C)
Heat Index: 78°F (26°C)
Visibility: 0.50 mi.


Considering the lowest pressure recorded by the hurricane hunters is 1003 mb, it is safe to say the center is very close to Key West at this time! Sustained winds at 33 mph with gusts to 51 indicate that the system is not quite as strong on the western side (notice: North wind) as to the east. Fay is starting to wrap up and should stay over water for a good 12-24 hours, which should give it enough time to reach hurricane status.

GFS/European Surprise for Fay

Fay moved over Cuba during the night and is now moving into the Florida straights toward Key West. The storm is starting to get its act together now with visible satellite images showing good outflow in the northwest quadrant which it didn't have before. Shear is still low, around 10 knots, and should stay low for the near future. The radar our of Miami shows a vast field of rainfall already over the Everglades and Miami. A tornado watch for this region should go out soon.

Whatever Fay does at this point, it is definitely going to be a major rain maker. Currently radar estimates are already up to 3.25 inches from some isolated thunderstorms north of the main rain shield in south-central Florida. Just off the coast a large shield of rainfall has already produced 3-4 inches. Needless to say, as this shield continues to move onshore the rainfall amounts in southern Florida will increase substantially. Localized flooding looks likely with local rainfall amounts of up to 10-15 inches possible.

Beyond the rainfall however is the threat of wind and surge, which is much more reliant on where the center of circulation makes landfall. Currently the models are starting to pinpoint the Ft. Myers area, with the GFS ensembles going towards Tampa. The further south landfall would be a best case scenario as the storm would have less time to strengthen before landfall. Currently at 60 mph and 1002 mb, the storm has a good chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall even in the Ft. Myers region. If the storm makes it all the way to Tampa there is a greater chance of a strong Cat 1 or low end Cat 2 hurricane, so lets hope for the Ft. Myers area. The rain will be welcomed in this area as Lake Okeechobee is still 3 feet below normal. Currently the radar is supporting a landfall even further south of Ft. Myers as the center of circulation looks to be moving towards the Everglades. However, radar can be deceiving, so we will have to watch this over the next few hours to see what Fay is doing.

But the big question now is what will Fay do AFTER landfall. Most of the models want to bring Fay north into the southeastern United States and then up through Ohio into Canada. However, a few, including the GFS, European, and CMC are saying otherwise. The 12Z run yesterday of the European was the first (that I saw) which indicated Fay moving off the eastern shore of Florida, stalling out, backtracking into Florida into the Gulf and making landfall in the Florida Panhandle again! Thats three hits on Florida! I threw out that scenario at the time considering it seemed so far fetched, but now here is the GFS:

GFS at 30 hrs: Landfall near Ft. Myers

GFS at 108 hrs: Landfall near Palm Bay/Daytona Beach

GFS at 168 hrs: Landfall in the Panhandle of Florida

Red: GFS Track, Green: Consensus Tracks

The GFS and European (from last night) solutions are a worst case scenario for Florida as Fay looks to strengthen before landfall near Ft. Myers, off the eastern coast, and then again in the Gulf! Basically, Florida would not break apart Fay very much since the peninsula is so flat and Fay would only get stronger and stronger from one landfall to the next. This is NOT a good situation! Hopefully the ridge building off of the eastern seaboard will not be as strong as the models are starting to indicate and the storm will just go up through the US into Canada do minimal damage. But with the models hinting more and more at a cross through Florida and then a back up into Florida or the southeast coast, the entire southeastern seaboard and eastern Gulf coast needs to keep a close eye on Fay.

NHC 5pm Discussion

Straight from the NHC discussion:

THE FORECAST TRACK SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF HURRICANE CHARELYFROM AUGUST 2004...IN THAT A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE STORMCOULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE EVETUAL LANDFALL LOCATION. THENHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES PRODUCT SHOWS ABOUT AN EQUAL CHANCE OFHURRICANE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDAPENINSULA.


In addition to that, the models have shifted....to the east and west, depending on the model. In other words, it is very difficult to tell what is going to happen just yet. I will stick with my prediction of the Tampa Bay area.

Fay's Future

Tropical Storm Fay has been a pesky little storm already. Forming near Puerto Rico a few days ago, the storm had difficulty forming a closed low level center even though it was underneath an upper-level anti-cyclone and appeared to be a tropical depression on satellite 24 hours before it was designated Tropical Storm Fay. Currently Fay is south of Cuba moving to the WNW. The storm is beginning to go through a substantial strengthening phase with winds of 50 mph. The infrared, visible, and water vapor satellite images all indicate cloud tops have grown, cooled, and are continuing to develop. So, what is the forecast for Fay and where will it make landfall?


The NHC is currently tracking Fay across Cuba, through the keys and into the Tampa Bay area. I have a few friends that disagree with this track, and rather think the storm will move up the coast and hit in the Big Bend/Panhandle of Florida. The difference between a Tampa landfall and a Panhandle landfall is huge, not only in track, but in intensity since Fay would have many more hours to strengthen if it moved through the entire Gulf of Mexico. Looking at the models, and what is currently occurring in the southeastern United States, it is difficult for me to go against the NHC. The current track is in the middle of the forecast envelope, with the only models bringing the storm further west being the NOGAPS, BAMS, and SHIPS models. Each of these models are considered inferior models to the European, GFS, GFDL, UKMET, CMC, and others. This makes it difficult to go with the more western tracks.

Model Tracks

On top of this, the GFS ensembles have started to come into better alignment with a Tampa landfall as well. A few are still going to the west into the central Gulf, but this seems very unlikely considering the upper air maps.

GFS Ensembles

The GFS is currently forecasting a strong ridge located over the south-central/western United States, with a weakening in the ridge forecasted near Florida. The GFS then tracks the storm up the western coast of Florida into Tampa.

GFS 500 mb Forecasted Heights

The current upper air sounding data supports the GFS solution. So, in the end, I find it difficult to go against GREAT model agreement, upper-level support for the solution of the GFS, and the current strengthening of Fay which would support an earlier turn. All in all, I agree with the NHC with a near Tampa landfall. Considering the storm will be moving directly up the coast, it will be difficult to pinpoint the exact landfall, but I doubt it will go into the panhandle. At the furthest north, we could see a Big Bend landfall if Cuba disrupts the circulation resulting in a redeveloped center of circulation further west for some reason.

Upper-Air Rawinsonde

As for the strength, the island of Cuba should do a number on Fay as the storm crosses. I expect Fay to continue to strengthen while it is over the highest TCHP waters in the entire Tropical Atlantic as long as it stays south of Cuba. This should bring Fay to near Hurricane strength, possibly near 70 mph. Cuba will then interfere with Fay, breaking up the circulation a bit, likely weakening Fay slightly or at least not allowing Fay to develop while over land. Fay will likely come off of Cuba with winds 65-70 mph and begin to move up the coast. If the circulation is broken up Fay will have a very difficult time developing much further before landfall as the storm begins to race to the north. I think a Cat 1, 85 mph looks probable if Fay makes it all the way to Tampa as predicted. If Fay makes landfall near Naples it will be weaker, if it stays over water and makes it to the Big Bend we could see a high end Cat 2. TCHP is much lower in the northeastern Gulf, so I don't see a major at landfall.