In Stone Now

Ike has moved well into Cuba, making landfall as a borderline Cat 3/4 Hurricane. The storm has weakened down to 100 mph and should continue to weaken as long as the system is over the Cuban land mass. However, Ike has continued its westward movement and looks like it could make it over the Caribbean before it moves back across Cuba into the Gulf. This would reduce Ike's weakening and possibly allow it to regain its structure more quickly in the Gulf. We will have to wait and see what happens today.

Once Ike gets into the Gulf, the short range and global models are converging on a solution near the TX/LA border. I give each state a 50/50 chance of landfall. However, the GFDL and HWRF, the two hurricane models, are forecasting a central LA landfall at this time. Considering the great job the GFDL has done this year, and its near perfect solution of Ike's (so far) traverse over Cuba, it seems like it would be a good idea to highly weight this solution. I still think central LA is the best bet, but with all of the others converging towards the border region, a Texas hit is not out of the question. It really matters whether or not Ike feels the trough moving to the north as it approaches LA. If it does, its moving into LA. If not, its going towards the border or Houston. Right now I think it will feel just enough to move inland in central to western LA.

Trying and Failing

Ike has resumed the westward motion, the GFDL forecast which went just over the northern edge of Cuba has shifted to over Cuba into the Caribbean, and the global models have shifted even further west into Texas during the 12Z runs (which I had not looked at when I last posted). Hopefully the westward trend continues (in the United States perspective), but there is still the possibility the storm turns west-northwest fully before reaching the Cuban coast. Nothing is in stone just yet.

Ike Is Trying To Surprise

If what I am seeing is true, then the Keys are going to be in the worst possible location. This morning Ike was travelling west-southwest, but the westward turn began as Ike approached the large southern island of the Bahamas (Great Inagua Island). This was fine, and expected. However, since Ike moved away from the island a stronger west-NORTHwest turn has started. A west-northwest track would bring Ike along the entire northern coast of Cuba, never allowing the storm to make landfall...which is a very strong possibility. Remember, the track has called for this west-northwest track, only over the entire length of Cuba. Thus, the forecast strength has been for Ike to weaken to a strong Tropical Storm or Category 1 Hurricane. Now, if Ike tracks right along the coast, over water, Ike will likely keep its strength and impact the Keys as a Category 4 Hurricane (or worse...).

I can only hope that this shift is a wobble, but if I was living in the Keys I would not be liking what I am seeing. I am sure the NHC update at 5 pm will give us a lot more information. But with the models trending further and further north (the GFDL and HWRF now bringing Ike just inland along the northern coast of Cuba), a complete miss is still possible. The models are now performing even better than yesterday because the hurricane hunters have sent in their high density data missions into the hurricane and sent up special soundings from Florida. All of this extra data has resulted in this northern shift in the models.

I will update again before 6 pm EST with what I am thinking this storm will do. Obviously we need to watch this current motion and see if it continues. If it does, Ike will likely be stronger than forecasted, be able to get into the Gulf as a major hurricane, and track a little to the east side of the forecasted cone. This would put LA/MS/AL in the greater risk zone. I have been thinking since Ike entered the islands that Ike was going to central Louisiana...but we shall see.

Hurricane Ike

There really isn't much to add today regarding the track, however strength is another issue! Ike has restrengthened into a Category 4 Hurricane and is currently moving west-southwest. This west-southwest motion has moved the system away from the strongest shear. Ike should steadily strengthen until its expected landfall somewhere on the northern coast of Cuba. A Category 5 storm could be very possible now considering Ike has another 24 hours (at least) over warm waters. The stronger Ike gets, however, the greater chance the storm will 'feel' the weakness to the north and it is still possible Ike parallels the Cuban north coast into the gulf. I personally think it will make landfall, but not for very long.

The storm will then head into the Gulf of Mexico, likely weakened by the passage over Cuba. If its anything like Gustav, Ike will need 2-3 days to re-organize. Luckily for the storm (not good for the US) the storm should have 3-5 days to re-organize while the trough that will pull it into the gulf pulls out and a ridge builds in before the next trough. I think Ike could easily re-strengthen into a Category 4/5 storm in the Gulf. The real question will be whether or not the storm is interfered by the next trough, increasing shear before the storm makes landfall, hopefully weakening the storm. Right now the GFS, CMC, and European models do not look good for those in the gulf coast.

A landfall location can still not be pinpointed at this time, but I think the northern Gulf from the Big Bend of Florida to the TX/LA border looks to be the area of most danger after the storm passes into the gulf (after the Cuba landfall and close encounter with the Keys).

Quick Hanna Thoughts

I thought I would point out that Hanna never made it back to hurricane strength, so my initial prediction was correct. The NHC said the hurricane hunter SFMR instrument was over estimating the wind speeds at the surface by 5 knots, thus the 75 mph wind speeds really should have been 70...and no hurricane. That's what I get for writing an entry that explained why I was wrong!

And as for the North Carolina landfall: Hanna decided to go back west and ended up making landfall right on the South/North Carolina border. That is still much further north than the original NHC forecast at the time, but not quite North Carolina. Either way, both SC and NC got hit hard from the storm, but luckily it was a fast mover and it is already moving up through NC into Virginia.

IKE

Hurricane Ike is still trending south. Actually, the European has went completely south of Cuba now and takes Ike into southern Texas! I am starting to think, with each model run, that Cuba (not Florida) will be the strike location of a nasty Category 3 or 4 storm...not good for a country that is so small and was hit only a week and a half ago by Cat 4 Gustav. I half want the storm to stay north of Cuba since they have already been hit hard...but if it does that, and goes through the Keys into the Gulf, it would explode and head for the US...There really isn't a good solution right now.

Hold on to your hats folks, Ike is going to give us a show the next few days. Just not a happy one.

Hurricane Ike Model Issues

The models seem to be coming into better agreement of Ike continuing its west-southwest motion until it comes very close to hitting Cuba, or hits Cuba. Then, a trough diving through the east will interact with Ike pulling it northwest towards Florida. All of this makes sense, but then the models either stop (GFDL, HWRF,BAMS, all other tropical models) or do something interesting (besides the GFS)...they do not pull Ike north and out with the trough, rather they leave Ike behind near Florida to push westward into the central Gulf to a landfall who-knows-where. Yes, the models have went from an east coast storm, just one day ago, to a gulf coast storm that could stall in the center of the Gulf (European model). That is a huge change!

So what can a little model knowledge get out of this? Well, one thing is important to remember, models tend to over-strengthen troughs at this time of year (Fall). They want to push the troughs further south, influencing a potential tropical system to pull north, and this is probably what they were doing a day or two ago. The European was the first to start hinting at a Gulf storm, and the European is also the one model that has the least issues with driving a trough south. Interesting! So in other words, it looks like the European might have been the correct model.

Right now the European, CMC, UKMET, and GFDL (of the reliable models) push Ike into the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS, HWRF, and NOGAPS bring Ike to Florida and then pull it north along the peninsula, slowly (a worse case flood threat). And the models keep trending further west! As of this time, I am completely on board with a Florida or Cuba landfall. Now the question is whether or not the trough pulls Ike to the north. Considering model biases at this time of the year, and this trough not influencing Ike for another 4-5 days, I think the trough will NOT pull Ike out to the north. The rebuilding ridge will likely push Ike into the central Gulf, where it could move very slowly (not like Gustav). I could picture Ike being pulled north but the trough towards the Keys, then being left behind just over southwest Florida or off the coast (in the Gulf), to be pushed out into the Gulf. Depending on the strength of the ridge building in from the east, Ike could go anywhere in the Gulf...in other words, everyone needs to be watching throughout the Gulf coast!

Another Hanna Point

The center is much further east than originally thought, and it now moving due North...which can only tell you one thing: All those model runs that pointed towards South Carolina are now off and need to be shifted east as well. I now think Hanna will make landfall in North Carolina rathern than South Carolina...unless she jogs back west again. Here I go again with a bold prediction...