Working the Night Shift

I am working the night shift this week so I am not going to have much time to put together any posts. Hopefully I will get around to it tomorrow. I am very upset with myself today...my forecast was not even close to what it should have been. But this is life, there are going to be bad days. Sadly I saw it happening yesterday and I should have changed my outlook but I couldn't convince myself it was really not going to be the severe weather day I had originally thought. Sometimes you have to go with gut instincts, and yesterday was the day.

I am sure if you are reading this blog you saw the 30% severe weather chance in Ohio the SPC had outlooked. I agreed with them, I didn't see any reason....at first....for it not to happen. But then the MCS held together, kept moving east. The SPC WRF came out and showed the MCS continuing all the way into Ohio, effectively ruining the chance of severe weather in that area by 'working over' the atmosphere and bringing in ample cloud cover. I even said the severe weather for tomorrow (meaning today) could be a complete bust out loud! In the end, this is exactly what happened. No severe weather reports in Ohio at all!!!! This was a time to shine, but it is sometimes very difficult to completely go against what the GFS and NAM are telling you. Lessons learned.