Thursday, July 23, 2009

July 24th, 2009 Severe Weather Outlook

Generally isolated severe weather occurred today in eastern Colorado, Nebraska, western Kansas, eastern North Dakota, and Minnesota. Other spotty storms existed in the east and mid-west, but generally it was a down day for severe weather. However, this should change tomorrow as a potent upper-level system moves into the heart of the midwest. A cold front will dive south, positioning itself in southern Minnesota through central Wisconsin back towards the South Dakota/Nebraska border by midday to midafternoon. Dewpoints ahead of this front are forecast to return to the upper 60s with the bulls eye focused on Iowa leading to CAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg. A theta-e ridge will stretch from Iowa into central Wisconsin. Helicity will be decent from Iowa through Wisconsin into Michiga with values of 200-300 m^2/s^2. Additionally, strong divergence aloft will occur in Iowa and Wisconsin.

All of these variables should lead to the potential of a more robust severe weather episode from Iowa through northern Michigan, with the greatest risk area beging from Iowa to Wisconsin. A few tornadoes will be possible with high shear values and decent turning of the winds with height. EHI values of up to 2 are forecast by the NAM right along the Iowa/Wisconsin border at 00Z (7 pm). Of course, in additional to the tornado threat, high winds, large hail, lightning, and heavy rain will occur in these areas. Out further west the severe threat will be more isolated, but I would not be surprised to see severe storms develop through Nebraska. Lower dewpoints in eastern Colorado and western Kansas as compared to today should restrict the severe risk in these two areas.


Here is my outlook (it is possible storms could initiate a little further north...but we shall see):


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