East Coast Storm

There is going to be an east coast low forming from tropical energy...that is almost a given now. The question is whether or not the system is extratropical, subtropical, or tropical. The NHC and many of the east coast NWS offices are not jumping on the possibility of a tropical system just yet. However, I have a hunch the NHC will up their outlook area to a moderate before tomorrow is out. Every model shows a storm developing from this energy in the next 12-48 hours, and shear will be at a point that the system could become vertically stacked and warm core, definitely considering the warm water it is currently over. No surface low is currently present in the Bahamas.

The storm will track north-northwest to just off the NC coast and then turn due north and then northeast out to see, possibly impacting New England from Mass. to Maine. A trough moving in from the west may lead to thunderstorm and shower developing in the rest of the northeast as well. This trough and cold front will have more moisture due to the presence of this tropical entity.

The question remains as to whether or not the system will get a name. If it can strengthen quickly it will have a chance, but if a weak low pressure system forms and then it moves off north the system will move into cooler waters and the HPC will have less reason to name it. If the system can get a low pressure focused in 24 hours then I would be surprised if it wasn't declared a depression or named before it moves out to sea.

Surprisingly today a fairly decent area of severe weather developed through Nebraska and western Kansas. I thought things would be a bit less robust, but still nothing crazy today. Primarily hail makers. Tomorrow a new trough will begin to impact the upper mid-west with storms developing in the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota. Additional storms will once again be possible in Nebraska towards southeast Wyoming and northwestern Colorado due to upslope flow. These areas would be the most likely spots for severe weather, but once again I wouldn't expect a huge outbreak. It will probably be on the order of the storms today with an isolated tornado possible (much like today!).