Tropical Update

Nothing is going on.

Thanks for reading.



Ok, seriously, nothing really is going on. But the new 12Z GFS does indicate that the Cape Verde season is around the corner (not that we didn't know that considering climatology). 9 days out (a hell of a long way out) the GFS brings a wave off the west coast of Africa and has a hurricane in the Bahamas on Day 16. Will there be a hurricane in the Bahamas on Day 16? I doubt it. But then again...who knows. Models are notoriously bad more than 3-4 days out...and often just awful. To believe a model 9 days out...or 16 days out...is rather ridiculous. So, what we can take from this is that the model is starting to hint that the Cape Verde season is about to get started. The majority of strong hurricanes come from Cape Verde western propagating tropical waves. Thus, the hurricane season might be about to heat up...

BUT: This year is an El Nino year...or at least we are moving into a weak El Nino at the moment. El Nino years lead to increased shear across the tropical North Atlantic and usually start hot in May/June/July and die starting in August when the shear increases. We are already into early July and we have not had a named storm yet this year. What does this mean? I wouldn't be surprised if this is a 5-6 named storm year. I thought if we got a few names in May/June/July we could reach 10, but if we don't get 2-3 before the end of July...say goodbye to 10 named storms.

Here is what I am thinking: 1 in July (possibly)...1 or 2 in August...2 in September....1 in October....done. Now it is on the record. Lets see how wrong I am....c'est la vie. (Can you feel the confidence!?)