Tropics.....finally.

There are three entities in the tropics that need to be watched at this time. The first is Tropical Depression 2....which is barely a depression at that! The system developed quickly after it moved off the coast of Africa into a decent environment. A few waves had moved off of Africa before TD2 and had moistened up the environment, thus TD2 was able to form and for a few hours could easily have been a tropical storm. However the NHC never upgraded it and it lost all of its convection yesterday afternoon. A small burst of convection occurred during the night so the NHC has not dropped the system. However, it was contemplated last evening....

TD2 is fighting a lot of dry air and has moderate wind shear present over the system. Both of these variables do not add up to a strengthening system, but as long as it holds together there is still the possibility it gets named. At this point I don't see it being named any time soon as TD2 moves west towards the islands. As long as the system stays weak it could move all the way across into the islands in a few days. I think there are two scenarios that could play out with this system: 1) It completely dies and 2) It holds together as a depression, or even weak storm if the convection can refire, for 3-5 days and then track just north of the islands.

The most immediate threat at this point is a burst of convection associated with a positively tilted (I think positive) wave stretching from north of Hispaniola into the eastern Caribbean. Wind shear is in the 15-20 knot range north of Hispaniola where the main burst of convection is located, which isn't great, but not awful either. Sea surface temperatures are not a hindrance. However, the upper level winds are not quite what would you except for a tropical system to be imminently developing. An anti-cyclone is currently progged at 300 mb....which is exactly opposite of what you would need with a tropical system. Unless a high can build over the convection we wont see this storm develop in the next 2 days. However, once this system moves into the Gulf of Mexico all bets are off. An upper level high begins to build in and there is the potential for a system to form from this wave. Luckily it won't have much time to organize before landfall along the coast. I would be amazed if we saw more than a weak TS out of it at the strongest. Just something to watch.

Further out east is going to be the big story down the line. A strong tropical wave has moved off the African coast and every model currently has it forecast to become a tropical system in the next couple of days. The NHC has just upped the risk to HIGH for this wave to develop into a tropical system and I do not see much of a reason for it not to. The one hindrance I have noticed is its large envelope. This is a HUGE wave...often when large waves move off the coast it takes some time for the wave to organize all of that energy into a more concentrated area. The wave has been off the coast for a couple of days now and the system still does not appear to be getting any better organized. I think we will have to wait another 2 days before a depression forms.

But once it does form there is a good chance this is our first big system of the year. Be it Ana, Bill, or Claudette (depending on the two other system in the Atlantic right now) it's name might be the big story of the year. Currently models are forecasting the system to move west across the Atlantic into the Caribbean, then turn north through Hispaniola or Cuba up along the eastern seaboard possibly making landfall on the east coast. The GFS and European both develop the system into a strong tropical system. A building ridge in the Atlantic should allow for the system to easily make it to some landmass....be it just the islands and then out to sea or the USA. The main issue will be the timing of a trough moving off of the eastern United States as the tropical system approaches. Currently the models move it just off the eastern coast....but other runs have had it as far west as New Orleans. So, as always, we don't really know where this system will be headed, but right now if I had to throw out a guess I would say the east coast needs to be ready.

Ok, more to come tomorrow.