Friday, August 28, 2009

Obviously I meant...

further west rather than east in my last post...oops.

Right now my original thoughts still look good for Tropical Storm Danny. The storm is fighting the dry air ingested from the upper level low that influenced the system earlier. Additionally, the trough off to the west is causing increased wind shear over the system pushing the most intense convection off to the east. Basically, this storm is doomed. We might see baroclinic strengthening along the coast as the trough advances eastward, but a true tropical system is pretty much done. The low level circulation is exposed with no convection anywhere near the center. If things continue, this storm may even be a depression by the end of the day.

The low will track north just off the NC coast and then head north-northeast into the Canadian Maritimes and that will be that. People in the east will experience heavy rainfall...but it wont be directly related to Danny, instead it will have more to do with tropical moisture from Danny being enhanced by the trough moving east. Basically, this is a non-issue system that if we didn't name storms no one would have any clue it ever occurred.

The next storm may develop further out in the middle Atlantic ocean as a strong tropical wave moves east. This system will have to fight the very dry air in the central Atlantic and I foresee another Ana situation. We might see a name, but a strong system is unlikely. Watch for the next wave following this one as it moves off the African coast and takes advantage of the moistened environment following the wave in the central Atlantic. We could see another situation like Ana and Bill where the second system was stronger. However...the wave moving off the African coast is not quite as impressive as the Bill wave was, so the odds are a little lower we see a major hurricane out of these waves. But hey, just my opinion.

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