Danny Boy Is No More

Danny was absorbed into a new developing low off of the North Carolina coast at around 3 am CT last night. It was very interesting to watch on satellite. Danny's circulation within 6 or 9 hours shot due north towards the North Carolina coast leaving it's convection completely behind. At that time the circulation became elongated, the Hurricane Hunter's found little surface circulation, and Danny was dead. It wasn't too much of a surprise considering the strong upper level trough moving into the area. As usual, a low developed off the coast and began to dominate the environment overpowering Danny. Now there is a rather strong mid-lat cyclone with a lot of tropical energy moving up the east coast. Wind gusts to 50 mph are still going to be possible along the Cape (or at least could have been...the storm is already moving north and away from Mass.) and then in the Canadian Maritimes. Heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches will be common in coastal New England and Canada as well.

Now the attention, at least for the Tropics, turns to invest 94L east of the islands in the central Atlantic and off of the western Mexican coast as a significant tropical system is taking shape. 94L currently doesn't look too impressive and the system continues to have to fight off dry air. Otherwise the environment around 94L isn't all that bad for development. Thus, I could see a weak system developing out of the wave as long as it moves northwest and away from the Caribbean which is extremely dry and has more shear. Odds of a named system...10-20%.

Now as for the western coast of Mexico, a storm that was only designated a depression yesterday evening is now a Hurricane moving towards the northwest. Hurricane Jimena is now a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds to 105 mph. The current NHC track keeps the storm out to sea as a major hurricane and then turns it slightly further west once it reaches west of the Baha. What concerns me most is that the GFDL and HWRF are bringing this storm into Mexico as a major hurricane rather than keeping it out to sea like all of the other global models. Currently the NHC is sticking with the global models, which makes sense considering the current track record of the HWRF and GFDL this year. Both models, in general, over forecast strengthening and pull the system out to to the north more quickly. However, in this case we have a land mass to the north rather than a Bermuda High. I am not sure how these two models work in this type of environment, so it will be something to watch.

If the system does move north rather than northwest it will be a major disaster in western Mexico as the system will be flooding rains, high storm surge, and very strong winds. Additionally, this type of track would bring a lot of moisture into the southwest US and into the Plains. Track in this case is very important in regard to flooding potential in the US as well.

The next chance of a real close to home system near the US will once again be off the southeast coast as a ridge of high pressure builds in the northeast north of a lingering frontal boundary in 5-10 days. Often when this occurs energy begins to pile up off the coast of Florida to North Carolina. If this energy can consolidate...or a wave (maybe 94L?) can enter the mix in this area, a system can develop. Often these system then pull out towards the northeast, but if the high that has built in is very strong, which the GFS is hinting at, the storm could move west into the southeast.