Possible Additional Tropical Trouble

A new tropical wave is moving westward near the far eastern islands. This wave will move north of the islands towards the southeast coast and combine with some left over energy from the front that just moved off of the eastern coast. An upper level low northwest of this wave is helping to ventilate the system leading to thunderstorm development. However, this upper level low is also creating some wind shear over the wave. Until the low weakens or moves out of the way to the northwest the wave will likely not organize substantially. However, give it 2-4 days and there is a good possibility of a tropical system developing off of the southeastern coast. Many of the global models develop this system...except for the GFS which splits the energy leaving some behind off the southeast coast and the rest pulling out to the northeast. This is a common problem with the GFS, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the energy consolidate in later runs.

The next question will be whether or not this potential system impacts land. Current trends indicate the system might take a track similar to Bill, only slightly further east, thus moving right along the eastern coast or clipping it. As the system develops we will be able to get a better idea. The European model did the best with Bill 10 days out (off by 150 miles) so I am going to lean towards its solution, which is a weak tropical system off of the coast of Florida, moving north and then northeast just off the coast of North Carolina and then off to the Canadian Maritimes. Could be an interesting next week.