Tropical Storm Ike

Ike has been initiated with 50 mph winds and a pressure of 1000 mb. I don't like the looks of this one at all, but I won't get too much into it right now with Gustav and Hanna currently the main issues. I am going to give Ike until Friday until I go out on a limb with this one. But, the Gulf or southeast US looks very likely.

Hanna has also strengthened to an 80 mph hurricane with minimal pressure of 983 mb. Considering it is holding together very well in this high shear environment, once the shear dies down a bit, I wouldn't be surprised to see it strengthen into a Category 2 before landfall on the southeast coast. More to come...

Hurricane Hanna

Is still strenthening....Hurricane Hunters just found 983 mb (down 2 mb from the 1:30 pm advisory) and 86 mph winds (up 10 mph). The next advisory will come out within the hour and I will update this post then.

Update

The NHC has increased the chance of the system off of the African coast to a High chance of development and state that it might become a depression today or tonight! That's much faster than I expected, but I wouldn't be surprised either. The system does look well structured, but it is rare that the NHC calls a system a depression within only one day of it moving off the coast because they like to see persistence. But we shall see...

Scary European model run at 12Z. The run brings Hanna up just off the Florida coast into Savannah, Georgia as a substantial hurricane. That alone is a bad solution, but add in future Ike (Tropical Depression 9) moving into the Gulf after traversing over Cuba...but instead of zooming to the Gulf coast, it sits around and regenerates into a monster. This season is FAR from done.

I am not saying Ike will be in the Gulf just yet, but it is a little worrying when the European continues to be so consistent with its track. Currently the GFS loses the system after 48 hours, so it is difficult to determine what it is saying. However, the models are very consistent with the upper-level environment surrounding Hanna, and track it about to the same area. So, it can be assumed that they are consistent with future Ike as well and the GFS might bring it to the Gulf. The CMC, GFDL, and UKMET also bring it towards Cuba or Florida.

In my next update I will take a close look at Hanna and try to make some predictions of strength and landfall location. I don't expect Hanna to strengthen much more before 48 hours passes (until Gustav's effects weaken), but I also wasn't expecting it to already be a hurricane. I didn't pinpoint the center of Hanna very well, and I thought it was on the northern edge of the convection. Instead it was within the convection, indicating that it was organizing better than before. We will have to watch and see if this convective burst continues through today.

Tropical Depression 9

Here is the track, which seems reasonable to me:





The wave coming off of Africa also looks very good, and is holding its convection together even with its transformation from a land based storm to a water based storm. The NHC has designated it a moderate chance of development into a tropical depression in 48 hours. I still think it will likely take the entire 48 hours, at least to be designated a depression, but a decent circulation and good convection indicates it has a good chance of being the 10th storm of the season. Tropical Depression 9 will be called IKE when it reaches Tropical Storm strength (which the NHC says it might already be).

Breaking News

- Industrial Canal is currently being over topped in New Orleans

- Islands completely submerged off the Louisiana coast

- TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 has formed in the central Atlantic. Track looks to be west-northwest just north of Puerto Rico.

Tropical Atlantic Heats Up

Beyond Gustav, 5 other areas are of interest in the Tropical Atlantic:








TROPICAL STORM HANNA



On the IR image/map, with the numbers, # 1 is Gustav and #2 is Hanna. The others are all areas of interest. Hanna is looking a lot better than it did yesterday. It is still in a favorable area of sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclone heat potential waters for tropical development, but shear out of the north produced by Gustav and a weakening upper-level low is hampering its development. However, a large plume of convection occured during the night, and now great south side outflow is present. This indicates that once the shear dies down on the north side, the southern side is already ripe for strengthening. This shear will likely start to wane as Gustav weakens over land. I give Hanna another 24-36 hours of difficulty developing, followed by an excellent period for a day or two afterwards. The models generally have Hanna stalled for 48 hours, and then moving north-northwest until a landfall in FL/GA/SC/NC. I think Hanna will likely be a Hurricane by that time as it moves up through a weakness in the ridge.



# 3 AND 4



# 3 on the map is a disturbed area which is in a high shear envionment. There is no low level circulation at this time and the system had little chance of development as it moves northwest. The NHC gives it a low chance of development. # 4 is a new area of disturbed weather near the islands that generated over the night. Nothing has really come together at this point and no models are forecasting development in this region. It is something to watch, but is unlikely to develop with its proximity to Hanna. If thunderstorms were to persist into the central Caribbean when Hanna moves north, something could come if it, but right now I give it a very low chance, same as the NHC.



# 5 AND 6



# 5 is the best looking system at the moment. A low level circulation looks to be developing and the NHC says that a depression is likely developing as I write this. Great circulation is present and the area is in a location of low shear. Development looks likely, and we should have a new depression today. The storm will move towards the westnorthwest for a while, as a ridge builds in to the east of Hanna and then back in where Hanna will move north. This should push # 5 well to the west, into the northern Caribbean islands, or just north of them. This is something that must be watched as it has a chance of being a land interacter. #6 is a wave currently moving off of the African coast that has a chance of development over the next few days. However, it is going to need some time to transition into its water environment and I don't expect immediate development.

Gustav Makes Landfall

The eyewall closing off last night did not lead to more rapid strengthening as I had thought. Dry air once again infiltrated the system which I thought wouldn't happen since the eyewall was shut. However, it did and the system held stead through the night, which is a good thing for the coast. Currently the winds have dropped to 110 mph as the eye has started to come on shore. The 'landfall' will probably be in an hour or so.

Gustav has followed the NHC track quite nicely in the last few hours before landfall, which might have saved the city of New Orleans. Any further east and the surge into the city would have been much worse. Right now we will have to just wait and see what happens in New Orleans with its levees. Just like with Katrina, it might not be until late in the storm when we get any news of any levee breaches and the levees continue to take a beating through the day.

Gustav should continue its northwest or westnorthwest movement for the next day or so, then stalling out drifting slightly to the west for 3-6 more days. This will likely lead to flash flooding in many parts of LA, TX, and AR. Much like Fay, Gustav plans to hang around for a while.