Day 1 and 2

So yesterday I decided it was best to go a little below MOS Guidance (80F/80F,59F/58F) due to some cold 850 mb temperatures and MOS having difficulty with cold fronts and often going too warm. We will see how that works out, but as for now its ok. I don't see it reaching 80 today.

For tomorrow the 12Z MOS guidance is currently 79F and 53F for both models, which makes the day fairly easy. I am not surprised to see the models drop the high a bit considering 850 mb temps will be even colder tomorrow. No rain is in the forecast and winds should be lighter than today. A deep trough has set up over the eastern US with northwest flow over the area allowing for temperatures to drop easily tonight. MOS has winds coming down to 4-6 mph tonight, which isn't ideal for perfect radiational cooling, but still pretty good. Dewpoints will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. This seems like a situation where going just above guidance makes sense....but I will have to look at more data to make sure that is the way to go. It's tough to go against such good model consensus. Cloud cover should be minimal tomorrow and tonight.