Ummmm...

I can't find anything very interesting out there right now. A trough-ridge-trough pattern is set up over North America right now with with some decent heat pumping into the high plains. The high temperature today on the 14th of September was 94 degrees in Philip, SD. Not unprecedented (the record high is 104F), but still hot! Normally when you hear of heat in the 90s in South Dakota you would expect warm or hot temperatures further south within a building ridge in the central US. However that is not the case at the moment as a cut off upper level low has been stuck in the southern Plains for quite a few days now leading to heavy rainfall from Kansas through Texas into the Deep South. Dallas recorded 4-7 inches across the entire city a couple of days ago and Wichita recorded 3-6 inches last Tuesday. This rain has been very beneficial to the drought stricken areas in Texas and generally for much of the southern Plains. Highs have been in the middle to upper 70s in Wichita for the last week! Wonderful temperatures considering it could easily have been much worse if this low had not become cut off.

But this pattern can't last forever, and the cut off low is slowly moving east in some weak westerly flow aloft. Eventually the low will be picked up (maybe not for another 4-5 days in the southeast!) and taken out leaving behind pleasant, slightly warmer, conditions for the southern Plains. A great weekend is in store for much of the central United States!

In other news, the GFS is starting to hint at strong troughs beginning to move into the US once again indicating the start of the fall season. In one run the GFS even had the 522 line at 500 mb all the way down into the Great Lakes in 10 days! It has since backed off, but this is just a sign of the changing of the seasons. Often the GFS likes to bring down strong troughs in the 10-16 day period only to back off as the event comes closer to the present day. The new GFS 00Z is still coming in, so as of now I am not sure what the model is showing in the most recent run.