Erika Update

TS Erika keeps reorganizing its center of circulation (COC) and has moved southwest rather than northwest....and is now entering the Caribbean Sea! Convection continues to pulse up and down and a new burst is currently developing over the COC. However, this system is still in a large area of dry air, and as long as that stays true (which it will if this system stays in the Caribbean) then it is going to have a tough time strengthening at all. The winds are now back down to 40 mph, which makes sense considering the structure at this time. Yesterday I could easily understand 60 mph...so I don't fault the NHC for being so strong, there was no reason to think it wasn't, definitely with the Hurricane Hunter data. But now, this system is very raged and doesn't look like it will get its act together anytime soon.

As the storm continues to head west, maybe west-northwest (it has to, right? no more southwest movement) it will move into a dry air mass and possibly over the island of Hispaniola. This island can be a death sentence for many systems, but then again, this system is redeveloping its center regularly, so it could easily redevelop over water just off the coast even if it moves right over the island. Either way, if it moves over the island or just to the north or south, the system will stay weak in the dry environment. It looks like my original thought that a weak system at best would be possible is playing out due to the dry air. Yesterday I kinda gave into the hype. But the weaker the system the more likely it is to continue on a more west heading, instead of pulling northwest and then north and northeast. Right now, if the trough over the east can let up slightly to allow the system to hold together, this storm has a high probability of impacting the US. Making a forecast is very difficult with this storm considering the models have no idea what is going on and Erika seems to have a mind of her own. However, a best guess would be over Hispaniola and then into the Bahamas to stall out....More to come tomorrow when hopefully we will have a better idea what Erika wants to do.