MCS...YES

It always feels nice when the SPC changes their forecast to your own forecast....and that is what happened last night. I am sure the SPC knew the possibility of an MCS was there, but they didn't want to go out on a limb and forecast a slight risk for a certain location (which would likely have been further south 3 days out) when the actual location of the event might have been somewhere else. At this point though, everything seems to be in line for a decent MCS moving through the central plains Wednesday evening and night. High wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats from this system, with an isolated tornado threat possible in the Northern High Plains in the late afternoon and evening from western Nebraska to the western Dakotas.

I didn't really get into the threat of severe weather in the northeast last night, and I guess I should have considering the storms that have developed up in that region today. Decent lapse rates and dewpoints in combination with a substantial upper level low are resulting in the storms today. The SPC has also outlooked this area for storms tomorrow, but I really haven't looked that much into it. Lets be honest, I live in the Plains, so this blog will center on the Plains.

MCS development will be likely Wednesday into the weekend. It is possible Thursday is a 'slow' severe weather day without a strong MCS but the MCS train will likely start up once again on Friday. Reminder: Once one Derecho or strong MCS develops in a certain environment it is very likely for a second one to develop the next day (or sooner) should the environment not change. In this case, the first Wednesday night event will be associated with a shortwave moving through the region...Thursday will lack this same substantial shortwave. But moisture will increase into the weekend, so the severe weather threat will likely once again increase.

Now it is time to go golfing and then come home and work on my thesis some more. I am getting there and have 5 days to get it done. I was invited to go bowling tonight...but I think working on my thesis would be the better, more responsible thing to do considering the time crunch!