MCS...YES

It always feels nice when the SPC changes their forecast to your own forecast....and that is what happened last night. I am sure the SPC knew the possibility of an MCS was there, but they didn't want to go out on a limb and forecast a slight risk for a certain location (which would likely have been further south 3 days out) when the actual location of the event might have been somewhere else. At this point though, everything seems to be in line for a decent MCS moving through the central plains Wednesday evening and night. High wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats from this system, with an isolated tornado threat possible in the Northern High Plains in the late afternoon and evening from western Nebraska to the western Dakotas.

I didn't really get into the threat of severe weather in the northeast last night, and I guess I should have considering the storms that have developed up in that region today. Decent lapse rates and dewpoints in combination with a substantial upper level low are resulting in the storms today. The SPC has also outlooked this area for storms tomorrow, but I really haven't looked that much into it. Lets be honest, I live in the Plains, so this blog will center on the Plains.

MCS development will be likely Wednesday into the weekend. It is possible Thursday is a 'slow' severe weather day without a strong MCS but the MCS train will likely start up once again on Friday. Reminder: Once one Derecho or strong MCS develops in a certain environment it is very likely for a second one to develop the next day (or sooner) should the environment not change. In this case, the first Wednesday night event will be associated with a shortwave moving through the region...Thursday will lack this same substantial shortwave. But moisture will increase into the weekend, so the severe weather threat will likely once again increase.

Now it is time to go golfing and then come home and work on my thesis some more. I am getting there and have 5 days to get it done. I was invited to go bowling tonight...but I think working on my thesis would be the better, more responsible thing to do considering the time crunch!

MCS in the Making?

Tomorrow doesn't look all that impressive on the severe weather front...tropical front...except maybe on the front through Florida. However, not impressive in a severe weather sense, but more the fact that Florida is going to see A LOT of rain over the next 4 days. A front is stalling out over the center of the state and I wouldn't be surprise, considering the tropical wave which is moving into the gulf, to see areas with 6+ inch totals over the next few days. But we shall wait and see.

Anywho, this entry is really about the chances for a nocturnal MCS with the threat of wind across the central plains. The models have sure trended down with the threat over the last 24 hours, now with the NAM moving the system a little north through Nebraska and maybe northern Kansas, and not bombing it out like it did yesterday. The GFS and NAM are now very consistent with the placement of the system and strength, which gives me a bit more confidence.

Currently both models are indicating a surface low developing in western Kansas leading to southerly flow into the Central Plains. This southerly flow will increase dewpoints across northern Kansas and Nebraska back up into the middle 60s (a little higher than the 52 dewpoint we experienced today in Wichita!). At 500 mb the flow will be out of the northwest (thus called Northwest Flow....) with a shortwave moving into the central plains Wednesday afternoon. This shortwave and increasing low level jet into the evening will lead to thunderstorm development across western Nebraska along the warm front. The low level jet will be nearly due south in the early evening as the MCS begins to evolve in Nebraska but will turn out of the southwest as the system moves towards the east into the Omaha and Kansas City areas. This will allow the MCS to continue its eastward propegation...and if the system can stay surface based, could have some decent wind threat late into the night and early morning.

Currently the SPC has a 5% chance of thunderstorms for this area....which makes me wonder if I am just crazy. But the conditions look decent for a good thunderstorm complex to develop and treck across the plains...so I am not going to back down...yet. I will be very interested in seeing the day 2 forecast that is issued later tonight.

ADDITION:

And here is the outlook for Day 2 (Wednesday):

A Relative Calm

The next couple of days can be expected to be relatively calm compared to the storms which impacted the country from the Dakotas to the Gulf Coast the last three days. Storms will continue in Florida through Texas and up the High Plains with strong wind gusts and large hail the threats. No real high risk of a major wind event or tornado threat is expected. However, models seem to be trending towards the risk of a large MCS on day 3...or Wednesday. Both the GFS and NAM develop this system, with the NAM being much stronger than the GFS. It will be something to watch and I will go into more detail tomorrow night if the models are still showing it. Currently the NAM has a shortwave at 500 mb traversing from the High Plains through Kansas Wednesday night in northwest flow. Dewpoints should be back into the mid 60s to lower 70s with highs in the mid 90s across much of Kansas.

Thesis Writing and Hot Weather

I haven't been updating this for a long time, but I thought I might as well start it up again. This first update will be brief and I will start getting into more of a weather blog once again next time (hopefully tomorrow after work).

I have been working on re-writing my thesis now for a month and a half...and I tell you, it is not easy. The reviewers have asked for many small...and large...changes to the manuscript and it takes a lot of time. But I am getting there. I hope to be close to done by the 3rd or 4th of July and maybe, just maybe, you will get to read my thesis in Weather and Forecasting.

As for the recent weather, there is only one word that describes it: HOT! We went golfing a few days ago at 2:15 in the afternoon on a day when the high was 98F and the dewpoint was in the lower 70s. And we played as a group of 5.....not smart. The large group resulted in us taking 3 hours to play 9 holes! In 100 degree heat index weather. Definitely not the smartest thing I have done. But I shall learn from that mistake and play in the late afternoons on these really hot days in the future.

The storm chasing year has been nice to me. Saw two tornadoes...and could easily have seen 6 more if Shaina and I didn't decide to call off the chase one day and go to a nature preserve. But that's how it goes. There will be more opportunities next year.

I will update either later tonight before I go to bed with a weather discussion or tomorrow evening. As for now, back to editing the thesis.