Negative AO = Cold Weather

Now, I know I keep going over this, but just look at the 00Z GFS model and you will see it happening. The GFS has been keeping it warm for so long now, building that ridge in the center of the United States. Now, here is what it looks like at 500mb:

Thats 360 hours out, yes I know...its unreliable. But even go back to 240 hours out and you can see the cold shot developing. The negative AO is starting to pan out, the cold weather is on its way. A cold and snowy eastern United States is starting to look more and more likely for mid-November and on. I forecasted snow for Anderson, Indiana on November 14th. I will stick to that forecast. And I will also stick with snow in Wichita, KS on November 21st. It might be a white Thanksgiving for much of the country, just as Joe Bastardi keeps predicting.

PS: The storm for next week, from the Tues-Thurs period, is still looking like a large scale severe weather event. Of course, mesoscale features will be very important to the event, and we will have to wait and see how the thermodynamics pan out. However, right now the trough digs deep into the plains, produces the bowling-ball of positive vorticity, plowing into the panhandles of TX/OK into Kansas, and quickly becomes negatively tilted. The makings for a severe weather event, and then possible backside snow storm are there on the synoptic scale, there is no doubt about it at this point. Of course, as we know, models can change...so we will have to keep a close eye on this.