2nd Cold Shot

We had out first real big winter system last week in which areas of the west received over 40 inches of snow! However, most of the snow occurred in the higher elevations of the inter-mountain west and didn't greatly effect high population areas besides Montana and parts of Wyoming. This looks like it could change this coming week with snow possible as far south as Nebraska or Kansas.

Basically, we have the same sort of situation as last week, only the trough will be closer to the center of the United States. This will bring the cold air into eastern Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas (and places further north)....areas that didn't really get the effects of the last cold snap. It will be interesting to see what happens, but just check out the last run of the GFS and you will see a very strong 500 mb trough dive down and the cut off over Kansas. This will drive down a lot of cold 'Canadian' air into the United States. The strong dynamics of the trough and then cut off low will enhance lift, along with decent moisture return into the central US...will likely result in a nasty winter storm somewhere in the plains. Not to mention possible severe weather and the possibility of a tropical system moving towards the Gulf or Florida if the models verify. This next 4-7 days could get interesting!

Following this system, the models aren't showing much...but the Arctic Oscillation is starting to hint at a cold period coming up. Currently the AO is positive, indicating building cold air in the arctic. If it stays positive, the cold air would stay up north and not influence the US...however the models are hinting at the AO becoming negative (with a strong ridge building into Alaska) which would allow this cold air to funnel down towards the US. This might be the start of the possible cold early winter Joe Bastardi has been talking about in his winter forecast and blog. Just be ready, late November and/or early December might be very cold (at least for that time of the year). I wouldn't be surprised to see a nice early season snow for somewhere from Colorado/Kansas/Oklahoma to the mid-Atlantic at some point during that time frame. Yippie! Enjoy!