It's coming....

The cold is coming! What looked like a snow storm a while ago for the high plains and then turned to a mix or rain and snow has now changed back to a snow storm....possible blizzard Tuesday night into Wednesday. The weather service is now forecasting somewhere between 4-12 inches of snow in central Nebraska! Winter is going to make its first big showing in the central US this week.

The 500 mb low producing this storm will drive south tomorrow, pushing with it a cold front that will go as far south as the Gulf Coast. Winds behind the front will be gusting to 60 mph...or even higher...with sustained winds easily in the 30s or 40s in northeastern Colorado into Nebraska and south into Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas. The strongest winds and highest gusts will be in northeastern Colorado. Thunderstorms, likely some severe, will develop along and head of the front with such strong upper-level forcing and decent moisture return. Already today some severe storms developed in New Mexico...and this was only from a small shortwave trough travelling through the southwest at 500 mb.

Once the 500 mb low reaches central Kansas/Missouri....possibly further south....it will stall out, developing an area of heavy snowfall in central Nebraska and thickness values sit around 540 in the central plains. Up-slope flow and a possible deformation zone will lead to the heavy snowfall and cooling temperatures. Areas of heavy rainfall from Nebraska into Missouri and Kansas look possible during the time from from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night. After this time frame the 500 mb low will be completely cut off for a day now, losing some of its energy and will slowly pull off to the east/northeast.

However, the low will pull moisture out of the Caribbean north towards the east coast as it begins to move again late in the week. This moisture, along with the eventual movement, will help strength the system again as it approaches the east coast, likely impacting the World Series in Philadelphia either Saturday or Sunday...or both. Not good!

And on top of all this, the Arctic Oscillation looks to change to negative by the end of the month, allowing copious amounts of cold air to flow into the eastern United States as a strong trough drives down to the Gulf Coast latitudes near Florida. It looks like snow will be likely in much of the Appalachians and the lake effect snow machine might turn on with the lake temperatures still very warm.

The weather is about to get exciting. Enjoy it!