Weather Trends for Philip-Wall-Badlands Region

What is up with this weather?! Crazy stuff going on here in southwestern South Dakota, and the entire northern plains. Severe weather, including tornado outbreaks in Minnesota and North Dakota over the last two weeks, massive flooding from Indiana to South Dakota, and now the cool temperatures. The question is, should we expect things to start to change and finally go into a hot pattern, or will this 'cool' weather continue?

The answer:

Expect the odd weather to continue. Just like a few days ago, another warm spell will take over southwest South Dakota over the next 3 days, likely peaking highs into the upper 90s in some parts by Tuesday. However, this hot weather will not last long, as another cold front will push through, shown by both the NAM and GFS as on Tuesday night/Wed, bringing 850 mb temps back down from near 30C to 13-15C! Again, another cool spell is in store for the Badlands region! If the 13-15C 850mb temps verify, the high could be as low as 69-73F! I don't think we will see temperatures quite that low, but cool weather in the lower 80s looks possible. The European model isn't quite as bullish with the cool weather, and we could be seeing a model bias in the GFS of bringing in a cold front that is too strong, so we will have to wait and see. However, considering the average high in Philip, SD should be 87F, this will feel very nice. On top of that, last year we would already have experienced four 100F, and several 99F, degree days at this point in the year! This year, the highest temperatures have been 97F, 90F, and 90F. Much, much cooler!

But how will the weather trend over the next 2 weeks?

The weather looks to stay much the same as we have seen over the last month. The GFS and European don't seem to be trending towards hot 100F degree days just yet. It does seem inevitable that one of these hot days is coming, but with no 30C 850 mb temps forecasted over southwestern South Dakota for the next 384 hours by the GFS, and the European not showing it for the next week, it doesn't look like we will hit 100F anytime soon. (Baring the slight chance we hit it on Tuesday this week, with 850 mb temps forecasted to be up to 30C, supportive of 100F). I think we will have highs ranging from 85-95 over the next two weeks. Hot, but not too hot.