Buffalo, Wyoming Severe Weather Threat

Today is looking like a good chance of severe weather in NW WY and SW MT. Decent CAPE (500-1500 J/kg), helicity (100-150), dewpoints in the mid-50s, and steep low level lapse rates look to be in place in NW WY this afternoon. A shortwave trough will push into the area around 2000Z or 2 pm (currently 1615Z, 1015 am). This should trigger storm formation over the higher terrain. These storms will quickly strengthen into supercell structures, which the SPC says will likely produce a tornado or two.

Looking at the current model runs, it looks like the earliest thunderstorm development should occur over the mountains just west of Buffalo, WY and then traverse out into the lower hills and plains in NW WY. This is the region that will lose the CIN earliest, has high CAPE, and decent helicity. Add in shear vectors of 30-35 knots, and spin should be likely with these storms. I believe this will be the location of the possible first tornadic storm.

I would say watch carefully this afternoon, except radar coverage in this area is lacking, and you probably wont be able to see much of the storm on radar. I expect a few tornado warnings (1-3) this afternoon.


The quick forecast for today:

Today: High 87F, partly cloudy skies with showers/t-storms possible in the evening. No measureable precip predicted. (NWS: 89F)

Tonight: Low 65F, cloudy skies with showers/t-storms likely. Severe weather not anticipated. Precipitation: 0.08 inches (NWS: 64F)

Tomorrow: High 80F, cloudy skies in the morning with showers/T-storms possible in the afternoon. Severe hail and wind possible. Precipitation: 0.20 inches (NWS: 89F)