Monday, June 30th:
NWS Forecast: 85F/88F
My Morning forecast from sunday/monday: 92F/88F
Rainfall forecasted: none
Actual High: 88F
Actual Rainfall: none
Difference: 4 or zero degrees
Reason for 4 degree error: I made this forecast before I knew what level (850/700mb) to look at for high temperature maximums. Thus, when I forecasted more correctly with 850mb temps, I forecasted the correct high.
Tuesday, July 1st morning low:
NWS Forecast: 59F
My forecast from Monday morning: 57F
Rainfall forecasted: none
Actual Low: 57F
Actual Rainfall: none
Difference: zero degrees
Note: So far, not including the two highs that I forecasted using the wrong information (gotta learn some how), I have an error of TWO degrees over FIVE temperature periods! Thats impressive. Even if you include the 5 degree error, that would only make 7 degrees over 6 periods, which is still good. National Weather Service: 8 degrees over 6 periods.
Dual-Pol Applications
14 years ago
2 comments:
Still good forecasting even though it seems like Rapid City does a pretty good job too. You might have some competition
Well, Rapid City has been forecasting here for a bit longer than me!
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