Little indication of strong frontal boundaries, such as the one that came through three days ago, are shown in the latest GFS model, which is reasonable for this time of year. The model predicts a decent ridge to build over the western US, which again is reasonable this time of year. This brings in ~ 27-30C 850 mb temps for next week. If this holds up, temperatures could be in the upper 90s for a good 5-7 days next week. As for this week, 850 temps are a bit cooler and should only support lower 90s, which is still in line with my forecast of 85-95F after this brief cool spell. The Badlands heat is finally arriving.
However, where are those 100F degree temperatures? Not seeing that trend quite yet. Will have to watch the models and see if things change, but only one day is forecast in the 8-16 day period in which 850 mb temps reach 30C (the cut off for possible 100F degree heat).
Just to note the European agrees with the low 90F temps for the next week, but is not quite as bullish on the warmer temperatures the week after. It does show the building ridge early, but then shows a trough beginning to dig into the NW US on Day 10. I think the model might be a bit too strong with that potent of a trough, but we will have to watch the trends. I will update in a few days as to what seems to be occurring.
As for the Severe Weather the last few days:
A nasty line of severe storms came through last night, producing wide spread 60-70 mph wind gusts, 3/4-1 inch hail, and heavy rainfall. The worst storm travelled adjacent to I-90, just to the north, and pushed out a very strong outflow boundary to its south. This outflow, and the storm itself, produced much of the severe wind gusts reported in the area. The outflow initiated further storms to the south of the Wall area which traversed into the Badlands. A great lightning show was produced by every convective cell last night. And on top of this, further development occurred behind these clusters, likely as the cold pool began to moderate slightly, and brought hail to Wall (1/2 inch) in the middle of the night. Definitely woke my wife and I up!
A report from the night before in Custer, SD was of hail covering the city to the point that they had to close roads because they were impassable!
And on Wednesday, my wife and I drove to Murdo and Chamberlain to chase a few severe storms. Nothing too impressive was seen, but I have included some of the best pictures. The one report we saw for the storm we were chasing was of large hail denting cars and busting windows in Presho, SD. Otherwise, we watched a storm to the north of our position, which appeared to have a ragged wall cloud, drop its core and push out a quick shelf cloud which rolled up into the sky. Add on top of that a nice stadium effect frontal edge and blue hail core, and the storm was worth chasing. Quickly after that occurred, however, a second storm interacted with the cell and ruined our view ending the chase day. We drove back to Wall only to be impacted by a storm with packed 70 mph winds just to our north. Definitely a fun day.
Storm which produced the damage in Presho, SD.
Ragged wall cloud and impressive storm structure from storm near Pierre, SD.
Wall cloud degrading, and pushing out towards right.
3 comments:
Nice images! What do you think about 94L. I'm somewhat troubled by its look and given that it has been slow to develop. These are the ones that worry me most rather than the long track Cape Verde storms.
A few days ago, when the system looked really good, I looked at the forecasted model tracks and positions of the troughs and ridges and thought it was on track for the Yucatan, which it still looks like it. However, if it follows the current GFS track, it has a good chance of reaching TX after impacting the Yucatan. And now, with the storm looking good again (actually, quite impressive) I think it might get to TS strength before it hits the Yucatan. But with a weak storm (non-hurricane), the penninsula wont have as much of an effect on it, allowing it to easily restrengthen in the gulf... Ya, its interesting, and definately needs to be watched. Southern TX will have to keep their eyes open.
Good call...the NHC will be calling you soon.
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