Tropical Update

Get ready for the 'fun' to begin. All reliable models are forecasting a tropical system to form off of Africa in the next 3 days. Considering the good model agreement, high sea surface temperatures in the region in which the wave will come off of Africa, the strength of the wave currently in Africa, the presence of a surface low already over land, and a low shear environment...development looks likely. My odds have gone up from 30% to 50%. I believe that we will at least have a tropical depression in the next 3-5 days. However, the NHC can sometimes be slow to designate a system out near Africa as they rarely threaten land, so there could be a delay until we see the depression designated if it doesn't strengthen quickly.

On top of this threat, there is now a possibility of a storm in the gulf with the CMC and GFS predicting a system will form off of the Texas coast over the coming weekend. This is the first time I have seen this in the models (the last model run) so it should definately be taken with a grain of salt. Sea surface temperatures should be decent, but other factors are not quite as good with shear forecast to be high. What the models might be picking up on is a cold front that is forecasted to move south over the next few days, and this might enhance convection near the gulf. It is possible we are seeing convective feedback with the GFS...and enhanced tropical development with the CMC which it is known to do. The CMC is the only model forecasting two tropical waves to roll off of Africa and both form storms, which indicates how it can be too aggressive at times in the tropics.

Even with all this said, it should still be a good idea to watch for any tropical signs in the gulf region over the next week.

The Pacific will continue to stay active with two more tropical systems forecasted by the CMC/GFS/European over the next week. I wouldn't be surprised to be on the E storm by this time next week.